AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM · neutral site
#43Away
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
28p
#50Home
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
28p
ASU 50%50% KU
Spread
ASU 0.0
Total
55
Moneyline
ASU-100KU+100
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ASU advantageevenKU advantage →
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
even
ASU run
KU +61
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
ASU +24
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · KU
EDGE · ASU
96.9
75.2
KU +22
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · KU
CB1 · ASU
68.5
85.2
ASU +17
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Jalen Todd
X · ASU
CB1 · KU
73.4
67.8
ASU +6
over the middle
Leyton Cure
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · KU
FS · ASU
60.0
70.2
ASU +10
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · KU
MLB · ASU
59.9
67.7
ASU +8
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · ASU
MLB · KU
47.5
78.3
KU +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona State
opponent
Kansas
home+0.5
Kansas State#44
-4.5away
away-0.1
UCF#52
+4.9home
home+15.7
Oklahoma State#97
+10.7away
away-12.8
BYU#19
-7.9home
home+1.1
Baylor#42
+1.1home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKASU +0.095% interval: -23.9 to 23.980% interval: -17.4 to 17.3-17+17ASU wins 50%KU wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KU 28–28 ASUKU 25–53 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 28–49 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 32–46 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 35–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 39–39 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 42–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 46–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 49–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 53–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 21–49 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 25–46 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 28–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 32–39 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 35–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 39–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 42–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 46–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 49–21 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 18–46 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 21–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 25–39 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 28–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 32–32 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 35–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 39–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 42–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 46–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 14–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 18–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 21–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 25–32 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 28–28 ASU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKU 32–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 35–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 39–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 42–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 11–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 14–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 18–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 21–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 25–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 28–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 32–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 35–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 39–11 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 7–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 11–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 14–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 18–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 21–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 25–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 28–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 32–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 35–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 4–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 7–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 11–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 14–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 18–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 21–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 25–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 28–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 32–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalASU +28ASU +14PKKU +14KU +28margin →