AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#26Away
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
32p
#66Home
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
22p
ARIZ 75%25% WVU
Spread
ARIZ -9.9
Total
55
Moneyline
ARIZ-301WVU+301
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARIZ advantageevenWVU advantage →
ARIZ throw
WVU coverage #117WVU pass rush #27
ARIZ +13
ARIZ run
even
WVU throw
ARIZ coverage #5ARIZ pass rush #91
ARIZ +26
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · WVU
CB1 · ARIZ
66.6
101.6
ARIZ +35
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · WVU
MLB · ARIZ
82.0
84.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · WVU
76.2
86.1
WVU +10
when ARIZ runs
Kedrick Reescano
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · ARIZ
MLB · WVU
59.7
75.6
WVU +16
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · ARIZ
CB1 · WVU
52.5
71.8
WVU +19
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Julian Savaiinaea
LT · WVU
EDGE · ARIZ
63.6
60.6
WVU +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona
opponent
West Virginia
home+5.9
TCU#32
-11.5away
home-2.8
Utah#16
-20.2away
home+10.4
Iowa State#56
-6.9away
home+10.9
Cincinnati#51
-1.5home
away-12.3
Texas Tech#5
-24.7away

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +9.995% interval: -33.8 to 1480% interval: -27.3 to 7.5-27+8ARIZ wins 75%WVU wins 25%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 32–25 WVUWVU 21–56 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 25–53 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 28–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 32–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 35–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 39–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 42–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 46–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 49–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWVU 18–53 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 21–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWVU 25–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 28–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 32–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 35–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 39–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 42–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 46–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 14–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 18–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 21–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 25–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWVU 28–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 32–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 35–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 39–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 42–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 11–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 14–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 18–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 21–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 25–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 28–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 32–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 35–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 39–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 7–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 11–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 14–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 18–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 21–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 25–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 28–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 32–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 35–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 4–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 7–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 11–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 14–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 18–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 21–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 25–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 28–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 32–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 0–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 4–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 7–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 11–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 14–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 18–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 21–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWVU 25–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 28–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalARIZ +35ARIZ +21ARIZ +7WVU +7WVU +21margin →