AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#50Away
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
20p
#16Home
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
35p
KU 15%85% UTAH
Spread
UTAH -14.9
Total
56
Moneyline
KU+551UTAH-551
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KU advantageevenUTAH advantage →
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
UTAH +26
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +20
UTAH throw
KU pass rush #42
UTAH +40
UTAH run
UTAH +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Ethan Day
LT · KU
EDGE · UTAH
96.9
88.6
KU +8
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Blake Herold
LT · UTAH
EDGE · KU
87.1
82.8
UTAH +4
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · UTAH
MLB · KU
84.7
78.3
UTAH +6
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · KU
CB1 · UTAH
68.5
90.2
UTAH +22
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Jalen Todd
X · UTAH
CB1 · KU
82.5
67.8
UTAH +15
over the middle
Leyton Cure
vs
Elijah Davis
TE · KU
FS · UTAH
60.0
72.8
UTAH +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas
opponent
Utah
away+2.8
West Virginia#66
+20.2home
away-6.2
TCU#32
+6.2away
home-7.9
BYU#19
+4.5home

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +14.995% interval: -9 to 38.880% interval: -2.5 to 32.3-2+32KU wins 15%UTAH wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 35–21 KUUTAH 32–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 35–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–39 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 42–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 46–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 49–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 53–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 56–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 60–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 32–39 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 35–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 39–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 42–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 46–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 49–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 53–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 56–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 25–39 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 28–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 35–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 39–25 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTAH 42–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 46–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 49–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 53–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 21–35 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 25–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 28–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 35–21 KU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 39–18 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 42–14 KU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 46–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 49–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 18–32 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 21–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 25–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 28–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 32–18 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTAH 35–14 KU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 39–11 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 42–7 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 46–4 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 14–28 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 18–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 21–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 25–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–14 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 32–11 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 35–7 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 39–4 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 42–0 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 11–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 14–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 18–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 21–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 25–11 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 28–7 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–4 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 35–0 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalKU +14PKUTAH +14UTAH +28UTAH +42margin →