AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#51Away
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
29p
#66Home
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
27p
CIN 54%46% WVU
Spread
CIN -1.5
Total
56
Moneyline
CIN-116WVU+116
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CIN advantageevenWVU advantage →
CIN throw
CIN protection #3WVU coverage #117
CIN +19
CIN run
CIN backs #64
CIN +5
WVU throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
WVU +5
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · CIN
EDGE · WVU
97.1
86.1
CIN +11
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · WVU
MLB · CIN
82.0
72.1
WVU +10
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · WVU
CB1 · CIN
66.6
76.9
CIN +10
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · CIN
MLB · WVU
62.9
75.6
WVU +13
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · CIN
CB1 · WVU
64.7
71.8
WVU +7
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Chidera Otutu
LT · WVU
EDGE · CIN
63.6
57.1
WVU +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Cincinnati
opponent
West Virginia
home-15.7
Texas Tech#5
-24.7away
home-11.2
Utah#16
-20.2away
away-2.9
Iowa State#56
-6.9away
away-10.9
Arizona#26
-9.9home
away-5.6
Houston#36
-4.6home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCIN +1.595% interval: -25.4 to 22.480% interval: -18.9 to 15.9-19+16CIN wins 54%WVU wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WVU 28–28 CINWVU 25–53 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 28–49 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 32–46 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 35–42 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 39–39 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 42–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 46–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWVU 49–28 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 53–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 21–49 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 25–46 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 28–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 32–39 CIN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 35–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 39–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 42–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 46–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 49–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 18–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 21–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 25–39 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 28–35 CIN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWVU 32–32 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 35–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 39–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 42–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 46–18 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 14–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 18–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 21–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 25–32 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 28–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 32–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 35–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 39–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 42–14 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 11–39 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 14–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 18–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 21–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWVU 25–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 28–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 32–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 35–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 39–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 7–35 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 11–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 14–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 18–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 21–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 25–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 28–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 32–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 35–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 4–32 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 7–28 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 11–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 14–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 18–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 21–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 25–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 28–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 32–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalCIN +28CIN +14PKWVU +14WVU +28margin →