AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#16Away
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
35p
#74Home
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
18p
UTAH 88%12% COLO
Spread
UTAH -17.0
Total
54
Moneyline
UTAH-710COLO+710
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTAH advantageevenCOLO advantage →
UTAH throw
UTAH +14
UTAH run
UTAH +13
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
UTAH +44
COLO run
UTAH +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Dylan Manuel
LT · UTAH
EDGE · COLO
87.1
83.0
UTAH +4
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · UTAH
CB1 · COLO
82.5
87.2
COLO +5
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · UTAH
MLB · COLO
84.7
83.8
dead even
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · COLO
CB1 · UTAH
70.8
90.2
UTAH +19
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Ethan Day
LT · COLO
EDGE · UTAH
57.6
88.6
UTAH +31
over the middle
Hunter Andrews
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · UTAH
FS · COLO
66.4
65.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah
opponent
Colorado
home+13.1
Houston#36
-6.5home
away+11.2
Cincinnati#51
-8.4away

Projected margin

80% between -34 and 0
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +17.095% interval: -40.9 to 6.980% interval: -34.4 to 0.4-34+0UTAH wins 88%COLO wins 12%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 35–21 COLOCOLO 18–60 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 21–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 25–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 28–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 32–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 35–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 39–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 42–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 46–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCOLO 14–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 18–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 21–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 28–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCOLO 32–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 35–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 39–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 42–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 11–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 14–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 21–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCOLO 28–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 32–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 35–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 39–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 7–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 11–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 14–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCOLO 18–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 21–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 25–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 28–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 32–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 35–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 4–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 7–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 11–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 14–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCOLO 18–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 21–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCOLO 25–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 28–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 32–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 0–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 4–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 7–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 11–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 14–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 18–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 21–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 25–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 28–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)COLO 0–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 4–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 7–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCOLO 11–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 14–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 18–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 21–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 25–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTAH +42UTAH +28UTAH +14PKCOLO +14margin →