AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#74Away
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
29p
#97Home
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
26p
COLO 59%41% OKST
Spread
COLO -3.6
Total
55
Moneyline
COLO-144OKST+144
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← COLO advantageevenOKST advantage →
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
OKST +24
COLO run
OKST +23
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
even
OKST run
OKST backs #26
COLO +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Dylan Manuel
LT · OKST
EDGE · COLO
90.8
83.0
OKST +8
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · OKST
MLB · COLO
88.3
83.8
OKST +5
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · OKST
CB1 · COLO
79.7
87.2
COLO +7
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · COLO
CB1 · OKST
70.8
68.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · COLO
EDGE · OKST
57.6
79.1
OKST +21
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · COLO
MLB · OKST
54.7
76.0
OKST +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado
opponent
Oklahoma State
home-6.6
Kansas State#44
-17.7away
home-6.5
Houston#36
-17.5away
home-2.3
UCF#52
-8.3home
home-21.6
Texas Tech#5
-27.6home
away-9.7
Arizona State#43
-15.7away

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCOLO +3.695% interval: -27.5 to 20.380% interval: -21 to 13.8-21+14COLO wins 59%OKST wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ COLO 32–25 OKSTOKST 21–56 COLO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOKST 25–53 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 28–49 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 32–46 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 35–42 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 39–39 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 42–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 46–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 49–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 18–53 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 21–49 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 25–46 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 28–42 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 32–39 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 35–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 39–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 42–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 46–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 14–49 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 18–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 21–42 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 25–39 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOKST 28–35 COLO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 32–32 COLO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 35–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOKST 39–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 42–21 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 11–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 14–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 18–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 21–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 25–32 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 28–28 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 32–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 35–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 39–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 7–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 11–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 14–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 18–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 21–28 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 25–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 28–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 32–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 35–14 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 4–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 7–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 11–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 14–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 18–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOKST 21–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOKST 25–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 28–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 32–11 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 0–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOKST 4–32 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 7–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 11–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 14–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 18–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 21–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 25–11 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 28–7 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalCOLO +35COLO +21COLO +7OKST +7OKST +21margin →