AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#43Away
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
21p
#19Home
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
33p
ASU 19%81% BYU
Spread
BYU -12.8
Total
54
Moneyline
ASU+431BYU-431
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ASU advantageevenBYU advantage →
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
BYU +20
ASU run
BYU +57
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
ASU +4
BYU run
BYU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · BYU
EDGE · ASU
88.8
75.2
BYU +14
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Evan Johnson
X · ASU
CB1 · BYU
73.4
85.7
BYU +12
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · BYU
MLB · ASU
84.9
67.7
BYU +17
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · BYU
FS · ASU
68.0
70.2
dead even
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · BYU
CB1 · ASU
52.0
85.2
ASU +33
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · ASU
MLB · BYU
47.5
84.3
BYU +37

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona State
opponent
BYU
away-9.6
Arizona#26
+5.8home
home+1.1
Baylor#42
+11.4home
away-0.1
UCF#52
+10.2away
neutral0.0
Kansas#50
+7.9away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +12.895% interval: -11.1 to 36.780% interval: -4.6 to 30.2-5+30ASU wins 19%BYU wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 35–21 ASUBYU 32–46 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 35–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 39–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 42–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 46–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 49–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 53–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 56–21 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 60–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 28–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 32–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 35–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 39–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 42–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBYU 46–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 49–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 53–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 56–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 25–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 28–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 32–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 35–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 39–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 42–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 46–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 49–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 53–11 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 21–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 25–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 28–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 32–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 35–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBYU 39–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 42–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 46–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 49–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 18–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 21–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 25–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 28–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 32–18 ASU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBYU 35–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 39–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 42–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 46–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 14–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 18–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 21–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 25–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 28–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 32–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 35–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 39–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 42–0 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 11–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 14–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 18–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 21–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 25–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 28–7 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 32–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 35–0 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalASU +14PKBYU +14BYU +28BYU +42margin →