AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
Beehive Boot
#19Away
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
25p
#16Home
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
30p
BYU 38%62% UTAH
Spread
UTAH -4.5
Total
54
Moneyline
BYU+164UTAH-164
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BYU advantageevenUTAH advantage →
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
UTAH +6
BYU run
BYU +26
UTAH throw
UTAH +18
UTAH run
UTAH +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Ethan Day
LT · BYU
EDGE · UTAH
88.8
88.6
dead even
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · UTAH
MLB · BYU
84.7
84.3
dead even
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Evan Johnson
X · UTAH
CB1 · BYU
82.5
85.7
BYU +3
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Keanu Tanuvasa
LT · UTAH
EDGE · BYU
87.1
67.4
UTAH +20
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Johnathan Hall
RB · BYU
MLB · UTAH
84.9
65.5
BYU +19
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · BYU
CB1 · UTAH
52.0
90.2
UTAH +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
BYU
opponent
Utah
away+7.9
Kansas#50
+14.9home
home+5.8
Arizona#26
+2.8away
home+13.7
Iowa State#56
+10.7away
home+14.1
Cincinnati#51
+11.2away
away+4.1
TCU#32
+6.2away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +4.595% interval: -19.4 to 28.480% interval: -12.9 to 21.9-13+22BYU wins 38%UTAH wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 32–25 BYUUTAH 28–49 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 32–46 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 35–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 39–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 42–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 49–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 53–25 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 56–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUTAH 25–46 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 28–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 35–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 39–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 42–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 46–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTAH 49–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 53–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 21–42 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 25–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 35–28 BYU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 39–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 42–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 46–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 49–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 18–39 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 21–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 25–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 28–28 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–25 BYU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTAH 35–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 46–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 14–35 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 18–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 21–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 25–25 BYU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 28–21 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–18 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 35–14 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 42–7 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 11–32 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 14–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 18–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 21–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 25–18 BYU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 28–14 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 32–11 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 35–7 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 39–4 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 7–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 11–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 14–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 18–18 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 21–14 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 25–11 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 28–7 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–4 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 35–0 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBYU +21BYU +7UTAH +7UTAH +21UTAH +35margin →