AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#74Away
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
22p
#43Home
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
31p
COLO 25%75% ASU
Spread
ASU -9.7
Total
53
Moneyline
COLO+293ASU-293
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← COLO advantageevenASU advantage →
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
ASU +42
COLO run
ASU +30
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
COLO +25
ASU run
COLO +66

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · ASU
CB1 · COLO
73.4
87.2
COLO +14
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · COLO
CB1 · ASU
70.8
85.2
ASU +14
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · COLO
EDGE · ASU
57.6
75.2
ASU +18
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · ASU
MLB · COLO
47.5
83.8
COLO +36
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · COLO
MLB · ASU
54.7
67.7
ASU +13
over the middle
Anthony Miller
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · ASU
FS · COLO
51.9
65.4
COLO +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado
opponent
Arizona State
away-11.1
Baylor#42
+1.1home
away+3.6
Oklahoma State#97
+15.7home
home-6.6
Kansas State#44
+0.5home
home-21.6
Texas Tech#5
-19.4away
home-2.3
UCF#52
-0.1away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKASU +9.795% interval: -14.2 to 33.680% interval: -7.7 to 27-8+27COLO wins 25%ASU wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ASU 32–25 COLOASU 28–49 COLO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesASU 32–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 35–42 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 39–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 42–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 46–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 49–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 53–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 56–21 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 25–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 28–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 32–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 35–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 39–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 42–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 46–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 49–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 53–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 21–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 25–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 28–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 32–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 35–28 COLO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesASU 39–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesASU 42–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 46–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 49–14 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 18–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 21–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 25–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 28–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 32–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesASU 35–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 39–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 42–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 46–11 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 14–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 18–32 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 21–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 25–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 28–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesASU 32–18 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 35–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 39–11 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 42–7 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 11–32 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 14–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 18–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 21–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 25–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 28–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 32–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 35–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 39–4 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 7–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 11–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 14–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 18–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 21–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 25–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 28–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 32–4 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 35–0 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCOLO +21COLO +7ASU +7ASU +21ASU +35margin →