AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#74Away
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
23p
#51Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
32p
COLO 28%72% CIN
Spread
CIN -8.4
Total
55
Moneyline
COLO+252CIN-252
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← COLO advantageevenCIN advantage →
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
even
COLO run
CIN linebackers #76
COLO +8
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
COLO +6
CIN run
CIN backs #64
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Dylan Manuel
LT · CIN
EDGE · COLO
97.1
83.0
CIN +14
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · CIN
CB1 · COLO
64.7
87.2
COLO +22
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · COLO
CB1 · CIN
70.8
76.9
CIN +6
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · CIN
MLB · COLO
62.9
83.8
COLO +21
over the middle
Gavin Grover
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · CIN
FS · COLO
61.5
65.4
COLO +4
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · COLO
MLB · CIN
54.7
72.1
CIN +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado
opponent
Cincinnati
home-21.6
Texas Tech#5
-15.7home
home-17.0
Utah#16
-11.2home
home-6.6
Kansas State#44
-0.8home
home-6.5
Houston#36
-5.6away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCIN +8.495% interval: -15.5 to 32.380% interval: -9 to 25.8-9+26COLO wins 28%CIN wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CIN 32–25 COLOCIN 28–49 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 32–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 35–42 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 39–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 42–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 46–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 49–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 53–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 56–21 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 25–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 28–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 32–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 35–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 39–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 42–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 46–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 49–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 53–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 21–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 25–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 28–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 32–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 35–28 COLO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 39–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 42–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 46–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 49–14 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 18–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 21–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 25–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 28–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 32–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCIN 35–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 39–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 42–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 46–11 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 14–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 18–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 21–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 25–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCIN 28–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 32–18 COLO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCIN 35–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 39–11 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 42–7 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 11–32 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 14–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 18–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 21–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 25–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 28–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 32–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 35–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 39–4 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 7–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 11–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 14–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 18–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 21–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 25–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 28–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 32–4 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 35–0 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalCOLO +21COLO +7CIN +7CIN +21CIN +35margin →