AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#97Away
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
22p
#66Home
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
33p
OKST 24%76% WVU
Spread
WVU -10.4
Total
55
Moneyline
OKST+317WVU-317
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OKST advantageevenWVU advantage →
OKST throw
OKST protection #77WVU coverage #117
OKST +28
OKST run
OKST backs #26
WVU +15
WVU throw
OKST +20
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · OKST
EDGE · WVU
90.8
86.1
OKST +5
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · OKST
MLB · WVU
88.3
75.6
OKST +13
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · WVU
MLB · OKST
82.0
76.0
WVU +6
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · OKST
CB1 · WVU
79.7
71.8
OKST +8
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · WVU
EDGE · OKST
63.6
79.1
OKST +15
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · WVU
CB1 · OKST
66.6
68.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma State
opponent
West Virginia
away-17.5
Houston#36
-4.6home
away-14.9
Iowa State#56
-6.9away
home-10.7
Kansas#50
-2.8home
home-27.6
Texas Tech#5
-24.7away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWVU +10.495% interval: -13.5 to 34.380% interval: -6.9 to 27.8-7+28OKST wins 24%WVU wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WVU 32–25 OKSTWVU 28–49 OKST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWVU 32–46 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 35–42 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 39–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 42–35 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 46–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 49–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 53–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWVU 56–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 25–46 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 28–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 32–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 35–35 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 39–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 42–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 46–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 49–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 53–18 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 21–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 25–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 28–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 32–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 35–28 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 39–25 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 42–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 46–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 49–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 18–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 21–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 25–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 28–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 32–25 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 35–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 39–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 42–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 46–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 14–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 18–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 21–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 25–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 28–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 32–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 35–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 39–11 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 42–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 11–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 14–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 18–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 21–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 25–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 28–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 32–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 35–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 39–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 7–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWVU 11–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 14–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 18–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 21–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 25–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 28–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 32–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 35–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalOKST +21OKST +7WVU +7WVU +21WVU +35margin →