AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#25Away
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
32p
#67Home
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
20p
FLA 79%21% UK
Spread
FLA -11.9
Total
51
Moneyline
FLA-372UK+372
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FLA advantageevenUK advantage →
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
even
FLA run
FLA +31
UK throw
UK protection #32
FLA +28
UK run
UK backs #105
FLA +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · UK
EDGE · FLA
85.1
90.7
FLA +6
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · FLA
MLB · UK
80.9
66.0
FLA +15
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · FLA
CB1 · UK
71.4
70.2
dead even
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Myles Graham
RB · UK
MLB · FLA
52.0
86.1
FLA +34
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · UK
CB1 · FLA
45.6
72.0
FLA +26
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Jordan Castell
TE · FLA
FS · UK
73.7
42.1
FLA +32

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida
opponent
Kentucky
home+3.3
South Carolina#29
-16.1away
home-2.6
Oklahoma#11
-22.0away
away-2.7
Missouri#24
-17.0away
home+1.8
Vanderbilt#23
-12.5home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFLA +11.995% interval: -35.8 to 1280% interval: -29.2 to 5.5-29+6FLA wins 79%UK wins 21%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FLA 32–18 UKUK 14–56 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 18–53 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 21–49 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 25–46 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 28–42 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 32–39 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 35–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 39–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 42–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 11–53 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 14–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 18–46 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 21–42 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 25–39 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 28–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 32–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 35–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 39–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 7–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–46 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 14–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 18–39 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 21–35 FLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUK 25–32 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 28–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 32–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 35–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 4–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 7–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 11–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 14–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 18–32 FLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUK 21–28 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 25–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 28–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 32–18 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 0–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 4–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 7–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 11–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 14–28 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 18–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 21–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 25–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 28–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UK 0–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 4–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 7–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 11–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 14–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 18–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 21–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 25–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UK 0–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 4–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 7–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 11–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 14–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 18–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 21–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalFLA +42FLA +28FLA +14PKUK +14margin →