CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
FLA 58.3%41.7% UK
Projected margin
FLA by 3.4
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
FLA 22 to UK 15
Win probability
FLA 58.3%

Current team profiles

Florida
Kentucky

When Florida has the ball

Passing

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FLA offense
#19
UK defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.43
#19
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FLA offense
#35
UK defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

FLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
FLA offense
#30
UK defense
#109
Success rates
48%
#30
44%
#109
Success rate
More metrics
0.28
#22
0.04
#56
EPA / play
1.23
#71
1.17
#44
Explosiveness
12%
#29
18%
#36
Havoc

When Kentucky has the ball

Passing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
FLA defense
#98
UK offense
#66
EPA comparison
0.25
#98
0.24
#66
Pass EPA

Rushing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
FLA defense
#63
UK offense
#35
EPA comparison
0.03
#63
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
FLA defense
#83
UK offense
#20
Success rates
42%
#83
50%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#82
0.21
#43
EPA / play
1.25
#85
1.15
#106
Explosiveness
18%
#30
13%
#39
Havoc

Current key players

Florida
QBAaron Philo
1114 yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
80.170/729
LBKJ Ford
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
96.1
Coverage
44.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.112/1796
WRJustin Williams
2 rec · 21 yds · 0 TD
89.49/2069
RBJadan Baugh
613 yds · 11 TD · 6.5 YPC
88.617/1044
WRVernell Brown III
17 rec · 271 yds · 2 TD
87.814/2069
TEMicah Jones
1 rec · 6 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.8
Run blocking
76.0
Penalties
0
83.715/1017
Availability reports · 6
  • Kelvin Jimenez · RBout · 2026-09-05

    Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davian Groce · WRout · 2026-09-07

    Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • V. Brown III · WRQues. · 2026-10-05

    Brown III is nursing a knee injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against South Carolina on Saturday.

  • Eric Singleton Jr. · WRprobable · 2026-09-28

    Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday.

  • London Montgomery · RBprobable · 2026-10-09

    Montgomery is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is likely to suit up against the South Carolina on Sunday.

  • Bailey Stockton · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Stockton is dealing with a back injury, and he is likely to be available against Missouri on Saturday, 3rd October.

Kentucky
QBKenny Minchey
1148 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
63.0239/729
RBJason Patterson
355 yds · 3 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.228/1044
WRKenny Darby
25 rec · 322 yds · 3 TD
81.147/2069
TEElijah Brown
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.8
Run blocking
78.1
Penalties
0
80.524/1017
LBAntwan Smith
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
64.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9220/1796
LBSam Greene
17 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
66.7
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
68
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
73.6234/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Tovani Mizell · RBout · 2026-08-22

    Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Lincoln Watkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Sooners on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

FLA
UK
vs
Offense
80.1
#56 of 138
QB
63.0
#126 of 138
85.5
#9 of 138
RB
81.1
#30 of 138
84.5
#1 of 138
WR
70.6
#75 of 138
83.7
#15 of 138
TE
80.5
#24 of 138
73.7
#23 of 138
OL
74.5
#20 of 138
Defense
82.7
#5 of 138
DL
71.6
#90 of 138
81.7
#12 of 138
LB
71.1
#95 of 138
70.3
#91 of 138
DB
70.3
#92 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Florida
opponent
Kentucky
H-19.0
SC#38
+1.0A
A-28.0
MIZ#15
-11.9A
H-0.6
OU#19
-12.0A
H+4.0
VAN#58
-2.0H