CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET
#87Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 54.1
27
Final
#115Home
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 50.6
37
Forecast win probability
HAW 36.0%64.0% STAN
Projected margin
STAN by 5.8
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
HAW 15 to STAN 26
Win probability
STAN 64.0%
FinalHAW 27 · STAN 37model had +5.8, off by 4.2

Current team profiles

Hawai'i
Stanford

When Hawai'i has the ball

Passing

HAW offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#114
STAN defense
#136
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.47
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

HAW offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#116
STAN defense
#138
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.32
#138
Rush EPA

Drive success

HAW offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#115
STAN defense
#133
Success rates
39%
#115
50%
#133
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#118
0.37
#138
EPA / play
1.13
#118
1.35
#117
Explosiveness
17%
#112
11%
#131
Havoc

When Stanford has the ball

Passing

STAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#89
STAN offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

STAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#128
STAN offense
#126
EPA comparison
0.21
#128
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA

Drive success

HAW defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#125
STAN offense
#126
Success rates
46%
#125
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#125
0.04
#111
EPA / play
1.17
#41
1.20
#91
Explosiveness
13%
#109
14%
#60
Havoc

Current key players

Hawai'i
QBMicah Alejado
1361 yds · 4 TD · 3 INT
60.9261/729
LBJulian Smith
5 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
81.266/1796
LBMatteus Ioane
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.7
Coverage
81.5
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
80.082/1796
RBDeVon Rice
276 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.3127/1044
WRTama Uiliata
27 rec · 245 yds · 1 TD
76.5101/2069
DBJeremiah Hughes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
73.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
71.8
Missed tackles
2
74.4213/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Robert Haynes IV · WRout · 2026-09-03

    Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Pofele Ashlock · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Carson Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tre' Griffiths · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Anthony Hickman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Isaac Jaramilla-Phe · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17t

  • Oakie Salave'a · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Salave'a is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

Stanford
QBDavis Warren
1207 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
70.0153/729
WRNico Brown
10 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
79.363/2069
RBTuna Altahir
8 yds · 0 TD · 4.0 YPC
75.3173/1044
LBGabe Kaminski
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.0
Coverage
70.9
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
61
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.2253/1796
CBBrandon Nicholson
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.2
Coverage
74.5
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
57
Passer rating allowed
52.4
Missed tackles
2
72.6298/2969
WRCaden High
17 rec · 236 yds · 3 TD
72.3187/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Niki Prongos · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Prongos is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aidan Kilstrom · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kilstrom is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Shaw · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daylen Sharper · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • London Bironas · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

HAW
STAN
vs
Offense
60.9
#129 of 138
QB
70.0
#100 of 138
75.5
#69 of 138
RB
73.3
#92 of 138
70.1
#78 of 138
WR
72.2
#56 of 138
72.7
#46 of 138
TE
57.5
#133 of 138
58.5
#137 of 138
OL
67.0
#79 of 138
Defense
72.8
#73 of 138
DL
65.3
#134 of 138
78.9
#27 of 138
LB
68.4
#119 of 138
68.5
#115 of 138
DB
68.3
#116 of 138
Common opponents