AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM
#90Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
14p
#96Home
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
36p
HAW 7%93% STAN
Spread
STAN -21.9
Total
50
Moneyline
HAW+1329STAN-1329
Against the market
STAN +16.9line STAN -5.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HAW advantageevenSTAN advantage →
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
HAW +16
HAW run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
STAN +24
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
HAW +28
STAN run
STAN +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Matt Rose
RB · HAW
MLB · STAN
61.2
78.1
STAN +17
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · STAN
CB1 · HAW
52.4
80.9
HAW +29
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Jay Green
X · HAW
CB1 · STAN
57.9
70.7
STAN +13
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · STAN
MLB · HAW
64.3
56.5
STAN +8
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina
LT · STAN
EDGE · HAW
52.8
65.7
HAW +13
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · HAW
EDGE · STAN
44.1
65.5
STAN +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 41
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSTAN +21.9MKT95% interval: -7 to 4980% interval: 3 to 41+3+41HAW wins 7%STAN wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ STAN 35–14 HAWSTAN 32–39 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 35–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 39–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSTAN 42–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 46–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 49–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 53–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSTAN 56–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 60–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 28–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 32–32 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 35–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 39–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSTAN 42–21 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 46–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSTAN 49–14 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 53–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 56–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 25–32 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 28–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 32–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 35–21 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 39–18 HAW neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSTAN 42–14 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSTAN 46–11 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 49–7 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 53–4 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 21–28 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 25–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 32–18 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 35–14 HAW neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesSTAN 39–11 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSTAN 42–7 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 46–4 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 49–0 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 18–25 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 21–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 25–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 28–14 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 32–11 HAW neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSTAN 35–7 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 39–4 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 42–0 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)STAN 14–21 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 18–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 25–11 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSTAN 28–7 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 32–4 HAW neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 35–0 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)STAN 11–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 14–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 18–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 21–7 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 25–4 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 28–0 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalHAW +7STAN +7STAN +21STAN +35STAN +49margin →