AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 9:00 PM
#6Away
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
32p
#96Home
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
17p
MIA 82%18% STAN
Spread
MIA -14.8
Total
49
Moneyline
MIA-466STAN+466
Against the market
STAN +9.7line MIA -24.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIA advantageevenSTAN advantage →
MIA throw
MIA +53
MIA run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
MIA +37
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
MIA +75
STAN run
MIA +48

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Matt Rose
RB · MIA
MLB · STAN
84.5
78.1
MIA +6
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Jay Green
X · MIA
CB1 · STAN
87.0
70.7
MIA +16
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · MIA
EDGE · STAN
87.5
65.5
MIA +22
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · STAN
MLB · MIA
64.3
82.9
MIA +19
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · STAN
EDGE · MIA
52.8
93.8
MIA +41
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · STAN
CB1 · MIA
52.4
85.4
MIA +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami
opponent
Stanford
home+16.4
Duke#39
-16.1away
home+20.2
Virginia Tech#57
-12.3away
away-8.2
Notre Dame#4
-35.7away
away+13.3
Wake Forest#46
-14.2away

Projected margin

80% between -34 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +14.8MKT95% interval: -42 to 1480% interval: -34 to 6-34+6MIA wins 82%STAN wins 18%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 32–18 STANSTAN 14–56 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 18–53 MIA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSTAN 21–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSTAN 25–46 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 28–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 32–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 35–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 39–32 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 42–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 11–53 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 14–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 21–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSTAN 25–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSTAN 28–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 32–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 35–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 39–25 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 7–49 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 11–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 14–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 18–39 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 21–35 MIA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSTAN 25–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 28–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 32–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 35–21 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 4–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 7–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 11–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 14–35 MIA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSTAN 18–32 MIA neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSTAN 21–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 25–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 32–18 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 0–42 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 4–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 7–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 11–32 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 14–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSTAN 18–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 25–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 28–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)STAN 0–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 4–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 7–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 11–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 14–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSTAN 18–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 21–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 25–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)STAN 0–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSTAN 4–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 7–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 11–18 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 14–14 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 18–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 21–7 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalMIA +42MIA +28MIA +14PKSTAN +14margin →