AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:30 PM
#91Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
14p
#33Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
37p
M-OH 6%94% PITT
Spread
PITT -22.8
Total
51
Moneyline
M-OH+1521PITT-1521
Against the market
PITT +6.3line PITT -16.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← M-OH advantageevenPITT advantage →
M-OH throw
PITT pass rush #8
PITT +45
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143
PITT +66
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
M-OH +23
PITT run
PITT backs #32
M-OH +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · PITT
MLB · M-OH
73.8
82.1
M-OH +8
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Ben Minich
X · PITT
CB1 · M-OH
55.6
88.7
M-OH +33
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · M-OH
EDGE · PITT
54.0
88.3
PITT +34
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · M-OH
CB1 · PITT
55.3
84.7
PITT +29
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · M-OH
MLB · PITT
48.3
89.0
PITT +41
over the middle
Elijah Lagg
vs
Jermaine Agee
TE · PITT
FS · M-OH
50.0
76.7
M-OH +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 42
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +22.8MKT95% interval: -7 to 5280% interval: 3 to 42+3+42M-OH wins 6%PITT wins 94%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 35–14 M-OHPITT 32–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 35–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 39–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 42–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 46–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 49–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 53–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 56–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 60–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 28–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 32–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 35–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 39–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 42–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 46–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 49–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 53–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 56–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 25–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 28–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 32–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 35–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 39–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesPITT 42–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 46–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 49–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 53–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 21–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 25–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 28–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 32–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 35–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesPITT 39–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPITT 42–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 46–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 49–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 18–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 21–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 25–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 28–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 32–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 35–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 39–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 42–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PITT 14–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 18–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 21–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 25–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 28–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 32–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 35–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)PITT 11–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 14–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 18–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPITT 21–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 25–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 28–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalM-OH +7PITT +7PITT +21PITT +35PITT +49margin →