CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:30 PM ET
#104Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 51.4
14
Final
#36Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 62.5
59
Forecast win probability
M-OH 16.1%83.9% PITT
Projected margin
PITT by 15.8
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
M-OH 5 to PITT 36
Win probability
PITT 83.9%
FinalM-OH 14 · PITT 59model had +15.8, off by 29.2

Current team profiles

Miami (OH)
Pittsburgh

When Miami (OH) has the ball

Passing

M-OH offense
Higher-ranked profile
M-OH offense
#24
PITT defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
M-OH offense
#81
PITT defense
#2
EPA comparison
0.08
#81
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
M-OH offense
#101
PITT defense
#6
Success rates
40%
#101
32%
#6
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#65
-0.06
#21
EPA / play
1.39
#9
1.41
#130
Explosiveness
15%
#84
18%
#34
Havoc

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Passing

PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
M-OH defense
#122
PITT offense
#38
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.33
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

M-OH defense
Higher-ranked profile
M-OH defense
#41
PITT offense
#93
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
M-OH defense
#108
PITT offense
#50
Success rates
44%
#108
45%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#106
0.18
#57
EPA / play
1.29
#98
1.23
#74
Explosiveness
13%
#123
11%
#23
Havoc

Current key players

Miami (OH)
QBDavid McComb
1120 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
84.249/729
WRScoop Smith
14 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD
83.632/2069
WRMaleek Huggins
14 rec · 262 yds · 1 TD
80.650/2069
RBLazaro Rogers
104 yds · 1 TD · 5.0 YPC
75.5169/1044
LBChristian McKinney
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.4
Coverage
63.6
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.3247/1796
LBGrant Lyons
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
66.0
Coverage
59.8
Pressures
13
Pass-rush snaps
122
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
1
72.6270/1796
Availability reports · 10
  • David McComb · QBout · 2026-10-10

    McComb is nursing an upper body injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Thomas Gotkowski · QBout · 2026-08-24

    Gotkowski is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Eric Karner · TEout · 2026-09-05

    Karner is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Keith Reynolds · WRout · 2026-09-05

    Reynolds has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Devin Hyatt · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Hyatt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Christian Ross · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ross is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brayden Boeing · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Boeing is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Castner · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Castner is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Noam Butbul · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Butbul is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trey Zvonar · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Zvonar is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

Pittsburgh
QBMason Heintschel
1304 yds · 14 TD · 1 INT
82.460/729
LBJustin Thompson
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.2
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.729/1796
WRBryan Hamilton
1 rec · 36 yds · 1 TD
81.943/2069
DBRashan Murray
5 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
82.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
10.7
Missed tackles
0
81.843/2969
WRTyreek Robinson
5 rec · 78 yds · 1 TD
80.455/2069
DBShawn Lee Jr.
15 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
4
80.062/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Malik Knight · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Knight is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Mason Heintschel · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Heintschel exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Boston College on Saturday, Octo

  • Elijah Lagg · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Lagg is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Hunt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hunt is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

M-OH
PITT
vs
Offense
84.2
#43 of 138
QB
82.4
#51 of 138
70.0
#119 of 138
RB
74.1
#81 of 138
78.2
#16 of 138
WR
77.6
#20 of 138
65.9
#88 of 138
TE
70.8
#61 of 138
71.8
#37 of 138
OL
66.7
#80 of 138
Defense
69.8
#109 of 138
DL
84.2
#2 of 138
71.1
#96 of 138
LB
78.8
#29 of 138
67.5
#121 of 138
DB
75.7
#26 of 138
Common opponents