AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#76Away
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
25p
#57Home
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
32p
ODU 31%69% VT
Spread
VT -7.2
Total
57
Moneyline
ODU+223VT-223
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ODU advantageevenVT advantage →
ODU throw
VT +19
ODU run
even
VT throw
ODU +13
VT run
VT +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Zion Frink
X · VT
CB1 · ODU
74.1
89.5
ODU +15
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · VT
MLB · ODU
71.4
79.2
ODU +8
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · VT
EDGE · ODU
73.1
73.0
dead even
over the middle
Luke Reynolds
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · VT
FS · ODU
67.2
76.5
ODU +9
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Jaquez White
X · ODU
CB1 · VT
53.6
90.0
VT +36
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · ODU
MLB · VT
64.7
68.4
VT +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVT +7.295% interval: -16.7 to 31.180% interval: -10.2 to 24.6-10+25ODU wins 31%VT wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VT 32–25 ODUVT 28–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 32–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 35–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 39–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 42–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVT 46–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 49–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 53–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 56–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 25–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 28–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 32–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 35–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 39–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 42–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 46–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 49–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 53–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 21–42 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 25–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 28–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 32–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVT 35–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVT 39–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVT 42–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 46–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 49–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 18–39 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 21–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 25–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 28–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVT 32–25 ODU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesVT 35–21 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVT 39–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 42–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 46–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 14–35 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 18–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 21–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 25–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 28–21 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVT 32–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 35–14 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 39–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 42–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 11–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 14–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVT 18–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 21–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 25–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 28–14 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 32–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 35–7 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 39–4 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 7–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 11–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 14–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 18–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 21–14 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 25–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 28–7 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 32–4 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 35–0 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalODU +21ODU +7VT +7VT +21VT +35margin →