AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#46Away
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
28p
#69Home
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
26p
WAKE 56%44% PUR
Spread
WAKE -2.1
Total
54
Moneyline
WAKE-127PUR+127
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WAKE advantageevenPUR advantage →
WAKE throw
WAKE +20
WAKE run
WAKE +5
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
WAKE +37
PUR run
WAKE +51

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · PUR
CB1 · WAKE
68.9
84.7
WAKE +16
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · PUR
EDGE · WAKE
57.3
96.3
WAKE +39
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · PUR
MLB · WAKE
56.4
84.0
WAKE +28
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Mister Clark
X · WAKE
CB1 · PUR
56.6
73.5
PUR +17
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Charles Correa
RB · WAKE
MLB · PUR
59.7
64.8
PUR +5
over the middle
Kylan Fox
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · PUR
FS · WAKE
45.8
66.4
WAKE +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWAKE +2.195% interval: -26.1 to 21.880% interval: -19.5 to 15.2-19+15WAKE wins 56%PUR wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PUR 28–28 WAKEPUR 25–53 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 28–49 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 32–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 35–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 39–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 42–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 46–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 49–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 53–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPUR 21–49 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 25–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 28–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 32–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 35–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 39–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 42–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 46–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 49–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 18–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 21–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 25–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 28–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 32–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 35–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 39–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 42–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 46–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 14–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 18–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 21–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 25–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 28–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 32–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 35–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 39–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 42–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 11–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 14–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 18–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 21–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 25–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 28–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 32–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 35–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 39–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 7–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 11–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 14–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 18–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 21–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 25–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 28–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 32–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 35–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 4–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 7–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 11–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 14–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 18–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 21–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 25–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 28–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 32–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWAKE +28WAKE +14PKPUR +14PUR +28margin →