AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Thu Sep 17 · 11:30 PM
Pitt-Syracuse
#71Away
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
23p
#33Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
35p
SYR 20%80% PITT
Spread
PITT -12.1
Total
58
Moneyline
SYR+403PITT-403
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SYR advantageevenPITT advantage →
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
PITT +17
SYR run
PITT +79
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
PITT +13
PITT run
PITT backs #32
PITT +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · PITT
MLB · SYR
73.8
80.0
SYR +6
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · SYR
CB1 · PITT
54.3
84.7
PITT +30
when SYR runs
Malachi Coleman
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · SYR
MLB · PITT
42.7
89.0
PITT +46
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · PITT
EDGE · SYR
45.5
80.3
SYR +35
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Nazir Ward
X · PITT
CB1 · SYR
55.6
68.7
SYR +13
off the edge· hunting Odom
Joe Cruz
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · SYR
EDGE · PITT
34.8
88.3
PITT +53

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Syracuse
opponent
Pittsburgh
away-6.3
North Carolina#61
+8.3home
away-2.2
Boston College#79
+7.4away
home+2.0
California#68
+6.6away
home-8.7
Louisville#28
-4.1away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +12.195% interval: -11.8 to 3680% interval: -5.3 to 29.5-5+30SYR wins 20%PITT wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 35–21 SYRPITT 32–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 35–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 39–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 42–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 46–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 49–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 53–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 56–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 60–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 28–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 32–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPITT 35–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 39–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 42–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 46–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 49–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 53–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 56–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 25–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 28–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 32–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 35–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 39–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 42–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 46–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 49–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 53–11 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 21–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 25–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 28–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 32–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPITT 35–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 39–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 42–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 46–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 49–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 18–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 21–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 25–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 28–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 32–18 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 35–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 39–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 42–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 46–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 14–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 18–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 21–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 25–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 28–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 32–11 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 35–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 39–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 42–0 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 11–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 14–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 18–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 21–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 25–11 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 28–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 32–4 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 35–0 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSYR +14PKPITT +14PITT +28PITT +42margin →