AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM
#57Away
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
24p
#47Home
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
29p
VT 36%64% MD
Spread
MD -5.1
Total
53
Moneyline
VT+175MD-175
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VT advantageevenMD advantage →
VT throw
VT +9
VT run
VT +19
MD throw
MD protection #69
MD +9
MD run
VT +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Jaquez White
X · MD
CB1 · VT
72.8
90.0
VT +17
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · VT
EDGE · MD
73.1
76.3
MD +3
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · VT
CB1 · MD
74.1
74.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · MD
EDGE · VT
67.2
78.8
VT +12
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · VT
MLB · MD
71.4
68.0
VT +3
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · MD
MLB · VT
69.0
68.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMD +5.195% interval: -18.8 to 2980% interval: -12.3 to 22.5-12+23VT wins 36%MD wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MD 32–25 VTMD 28–49 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 32–46 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 35–42 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 39–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 42–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 46–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 49–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 53–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 56–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMD 25–46 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 28–42 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 32–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 35–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 39–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 42–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 46–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 49–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 53–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 21–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 25–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 28–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 32–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 35–28 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 39–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 42–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 46–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 49–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 18–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 21–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 25–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 28–28 VT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMD 32–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 35–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 39–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 42–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 46–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 14–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 18–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 21–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 25–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 28–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 32–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 35–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 39–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 42–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 11–32 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 14–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 18–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 21–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 25–18 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 28–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 32–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 35–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 39–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 7–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 14–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 18–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 21–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 25–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 28–7 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 32–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 35–0 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalVT +21VT +7MD +7MD +21MD +35margin →