CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
#219Away
Bucknell
1-3 · AVR 34.4
0
Final
#21Home
Pittsburgh
3-0 · AVR 70.5
59
Forecast win probability
BUCK 0.1%99.9% PITT
Projected margin
PITT by 56.4
Projected total
70
80% outcome range
PITT 38 to PITT 77
Win probability
PITT 99.9%
FinalBUCK 0 · PITT 59model had +56.4, off by 2.6

Current team profiles

Bucknell
Pittsburgh

When Bucknell has the ball

Passing

No comparison
BUCK offense
—
PITT defense
#71
EPA comparison
—
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
BUCK offense
—
PITT defense
#2
EPA comparison
—
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
BUCK offense
#112
PITT defense
#6
Success rates
39%
#112
32%
#6
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#104
-0.06
#21
EPA / play
0.18
#119
1.41
#130
Explosiveness
—
18%
#34
Havoc

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Passing

No comparison
BUCK defense
—
PITT offense
#38
EPA comparison
—
0.33
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
BUCK defense
—
PITT offense
#93
EPA comparison
—
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
BUCK defense
#42
PITT offense
#50
Success rates
43%
#42
45%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#44
0.18
#57
EPA / play
0.19
#24
1.23
#74
Explosiveness
—
11%
#23
Havoc

Current key players

Bucknell
QBChristopher Dietrich
685 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
71.590/370
DBEngland Allen
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.6
Coverage
78.4
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
84
Passer rating allowed
47.2
Missed tackles
1
81.036/1765
DLMatti Kruger
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.0
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.881/1549
DBLangston Blair
5 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
75.6
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
45.8
Missed tackles
0
75.8119/1765
DBJames Schlendorf
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.0188/1765
DLJason Morbitzer
14 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.6
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
111
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.2174/1549
Pittsburgh
QBMason Heintschel
1304 yds · 14 TD · 1 INT
82.460/729
LBJustin Thompson
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.2
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.729/1796
WRBryan Hamilton
1 rec · 36 yds · 1 TD
81.943/2069
DBRashan Murray
5 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
82.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
10.7
Missed tackles
0
81.843/2969
WRTyreek Robinson
5 rec · 78 yds · 1 TD
80.455/2069
DBShawn Lee Jr.
15 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
4
80.062/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Malik Knight · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Knight is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Mason Heintschel · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Heintschel exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Boston College on Saturday, Octo

  • Elijah Lagg · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Lagg is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Hunt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hunt is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BUCK
PITT
vs
Offense
71.5
#65 of 125
QB
82.4
#51 of 138
65.0
#114 of 126
RB
74.1
#81 of 138
68.7
#68 of 126
WR
77.6
#20 of 138
57.0
#110 of 124
TE
70.8
#61 of 138
65.2
#56 of 125
OL
66.7
#80 of 138
Defense
72.0
#47 of 126
DL
84.2
#2 of 138
67.6
#102 of 126
LB
78.8
#29 of 138
73.5
#36 of 126
DB
75.7
#26 of 138
Common opponents