AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 10:30 PM
#107Away
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
10p
#6Home
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
42p
CMU 1%99% MIA
Spread
MIA -32.0
Total
53
Moneyline
CMU—MIA—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CMU advantageevenMIA advantage →
CMU throw
MIA +58
CMU run
MIA +50
MIA throw
MIA +36
MIA run
CMU linebackers #141
MIA +64

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · MIA
EDGE · CMU
87.5
85.9
dead even
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · MIA
CB1 · CMU
87.0
76.0
MIA +11
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · CMU
EDGE · MIA
61.4
93.8
MIA +32
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · CMU
MLB · MIA
57.2
82.9
MIA +26
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · CMU
CB1 · MIA
53.7
85.4
MIA +32
over the middle
Elija Lofton
vs
Tysen Campbell
TE · MIA
FS · CMU
69.0
63.1
MIA +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +32.095% interval: 8.1 to 55.980% interval: 14.6 to 49.3+15+49CMU wins 1%MIA wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 46–11 CMUMIA 42–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 46–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 49–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 53–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 56–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 60–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 63–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 67–11 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 70–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIA 39–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 42–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 46–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 49–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 53–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 56–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 60–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 63–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 67–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 35–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 39–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 42–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 46–18 CMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 49–14 CMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 53–11 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 56–7 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 60–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 63–0 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 32–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 35–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 39–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 42–14 CMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMIA 46–11 CMU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMIA 49–7 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 53–4 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIA 56–0 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MIA 28–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 32–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 35–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 39–11 CMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMIA 42–7 CMU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMIA 46–4 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 49–0 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MIA 25–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 28–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 32–11 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 35–7 CMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 39–4 CMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 42–0 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MIA 21–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 25–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 28–7 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 32–4 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 35–0 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMIA +7MIA +21MIA +35MIA +49MIA +63margin →