AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#57Away
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
29p
#79Home
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
28p
VT 54%46% BC
Spread
VT -1.4
Total
57
Moneyline
VT-118BC+118
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VT advantageevenBC advantage →
VT throw
VT +30
VT run
VT +19
BC throw
VT +10
BC run
BC +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Kameron Howard
X · VT
CB1 · BC
74.1
75.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · VT
EDGE · BC
73.1
75.6
dead even
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · BC
MLB · VT
79.5
68.4
BC +11
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · VT
MLB · BC
71.4
75.5
BC +4
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Jaquez White
X · BC
CB1 · VT
55.9
90.0
VT +34
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · BC
EDGE · VT
62.7
78.8
VT +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia Tech
opponent
Boston College
home-3.0
Georgia Tech#38
-11.9away
away-20.2
Miami#6
-24.2away
home-3.5
Pittsburgh#33
-7.4home
away-16.1
SMU#18
-20.0away

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVT +1.495% interval: -25.3 to 22.580% interval: -18.8 to 15.9-19+16VT wins 54%BC wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BC 28–28 VTBC 25–53 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 28–49 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 32–46 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 35–42 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBC 39–39 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 42–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 46–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 49–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 53–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 21–49 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 25–46 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 28–42 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 32–39 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 35–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 39–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 42–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 46–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 49–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 18–46 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 21–42 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 25–39 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 28–35 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 32–32 VT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBC 35–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBC 39–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 42–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 46–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 14–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 18–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 21–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 25–32 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBC 28–28 VT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 32–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 35–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 39–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 42–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 11–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 14–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 18–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 21–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 25–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBC 28–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 32–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 35–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 39–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 7–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 11–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 14–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 18–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 21–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 25–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 28–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 32–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 35–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 4–32 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 7–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 11–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 14–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 18–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBC 21–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 25–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 28–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 32–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalVT +28VT +14PKBC +14BC +28margin →