AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#6Away
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
29p
#27Home
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
24p
MIA 63%37% CLEM
Spread
MIA -4.9
Total
52
Moneyline
MIA-170CLEM+170
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIA advantageevenCLEM advantage →
MIA throw
even
MIA run
MIA +10
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
MIA +43
CLEM run
MIA +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Will Heldt
LT · MIA
EDGE · CLEM
87.5
102.2
CLEM +15
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Ashton Hampton
X · MIA
CB1 · CLEM
87.0
87.1
dead even
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Sammy Brown
RB · MIA
MLB · CLEM
84.5
80.8
MIA +4
off the edge· hunting Denson
Dietrick Pennington
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · CLEM
EDGE · MIA
70.7
93.8
MIA +23
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · CLEM
CB1 · MIA
71.6
85.4
MIA +14
when CLEM runs
Chris Johnson Jr.
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · CLEM
MLB · MIA
68.0
82.9
MIA +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami
opponent
Clemson
home+16.4
Duke#39
+4.0away
home+10.0
Florida State#30
-2.3away
home+20.2
Virginia Tech#57
+12.8home
away+15.1
North Carolina#61
+12.7home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +4.995% interval: -28.8 to 1980% interval: -22.3 to 12.5-22+13MIA wins 63%CLEM wins 37%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 28–21 CLEMCLEM 18–53 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLEM 21–49 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLEM 25–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 28–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLEM 32–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLEM 35–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 39–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 42–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLEM 46–25 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 14–49 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 18–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLEM 21–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 25–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLEM 28–35 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCLEM 32–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLEM 35–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLEM 39–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 42–21 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 11–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 14–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 18–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 21–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLEM 25–32 MIA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLEM 28–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLEM 32–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 35–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLEM 39–18 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLEM 7–42 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 11–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 14–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 18–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLEM 21–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLEM 25–25 MIA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLEM 28–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 32–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLEM 35–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLEM 4–39 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 7–35 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLEM 11–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 14–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLEM 18–25 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCLEM 21–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLEM 25–18 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLEM 28–14 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 32–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 0–35 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLEM 4–32 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLEM 7–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 11–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLEM 14–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLEM 18–18 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 21–14 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 25–11 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLEM 28–7 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLEM 0–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 4–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 7–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLEM 11–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLEM 14–14 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 18–11 MIA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 21–7 MIA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLEM 25–4 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalMIA +35MIA +21MIA +7CLEM +7CLEM +21margin →