AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#96Away
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
19p
#46Home
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
33p
STAN 16%84% WAKE
Spread
WAKE -14.2
Total
53
Moneyline
STAN+515WAKE-515
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← STAN advantageevenWAKE advantage →
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
WAKE +65
STAN run
WAKE +41
WAKE throw
WAKE +8
WAKE run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
STAN +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · STAN
EDGE · WAKE
52.8
96.3
WAKE +43
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · STAN
MLB · WAKE
64.3
84.0
WAKE +20
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Matt Rose
RB · WAKE
MLB · STAN
59.7
78.1
STAN +18
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · STAN
CB1 · WAKE
52.4
84.7
WAKE +32
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Jay Green
X · WAKE
CB1 · STAN
56.6
70.7
STAN +14
over the middle
Chico Holt
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · STAN
FS · WAKE
40.0
66.4
WAKE +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Stanford
opponent
Wake Forest
away-16.1
Duke#39
+0.6home
away-19.9
Louisville#28
-8.2away
away-9.2
California#68
+2.5away
home-12.8
Georgia Tech#38
-6.1away
home-13.2
NC State#34
-6.5away
home-20.9
SMU#18
-14.2away
home-14.8
Miami#6
-13.3home

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWAKE +14.295% interval: -9.7 to 38.180% interval: -3.2 to 31.6-3+32STAN wins 16%WAKE wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WAKE 35–21 STANWAKE 32–46 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 35–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 39–39 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 42–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 46–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 49–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 53–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 56–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 60–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 28–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 32–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 35–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWAKE 39–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 42–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWAKE 46–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 49–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWAKE 53–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 56–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 25–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 28–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 32–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 35–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 39–25 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 42–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 46–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 49–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 53–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 21–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 25–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 28–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWAKE 32–25 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 35–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWAKE 39–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 42–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 46–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 49–7 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 18–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 21–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 25–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWAKE 28–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 32–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWAKE 35–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 39–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 42–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 46–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 14–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 18–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 21–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 25–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 28–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 32–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 35–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 39–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 42–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 11–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 14–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 18–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWAKE 21–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 25–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWAKE 28–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 32–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWAKE 35–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSTAN +14PKWAKE +14WAKE +28WAKE +42margin →