AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM
Legends Trophy
#96Away
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
10p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
46p
STAN 1%99% ND
Spread
ND -35.7
Total
55
Moneyline
STAN—ND—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← STAN advantageevenND advantage →
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
ND +75
STAN run
ND +47
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +34
ND run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
STAN +31

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Leonard Moore
X · STAN
CB1 · ND
52.4
101.6
ND +49
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · STAN
MLB · ND
64.3
86.5
ND +22
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Jay Green
X · ND
CB1 · STAN
74.7
70.7
ND +4
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · STAN
EDGE · ND
52.8
88.4
ND +36
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Matt Rose
RB · ND
MLB · STAN
56.9
78.1
STAN +21
over the middle
Chico Holt
vs
Luke Talich
TE · STAN
FS · ND
40.0
86.9
ND +47

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Stanford
opponent
Notre Dame
home-20.9
SMU#18
+12.3home
home-14.8
Miami#6
+8.2home

Projected margin

80% between 18 and 53
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +35.795% interval: 11.8 to 59.680% interval: 18.3 to 53.1+18+53STAN wins 1%ND wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 46–11 STANND 42–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 46–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 49–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 53–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 56–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 60–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 63–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 67–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 70–7 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 39–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 42–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 46–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 49–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 53–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 56–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 60–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 63–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 67–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 35–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 39–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 42–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 46–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 49–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesND 53–11 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 56–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 60–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 63–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 32–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 35–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 39–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 42–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 46–11 STAN neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesND 49–7 STAN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesND 53–4 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 56–0 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ND 28–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 32–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 35–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 39–11 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 42–7 STAN neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesND 46–4 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 49–0 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 25–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 28–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 32–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 35–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 39–4 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 42–0 STAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 21–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 25–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 28–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 32–4 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 35–0 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalND +7ND +21ND +35ND +49ND +63margin →