AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#57Away
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
27p
#68Home
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
26p
VT 52%48% CAL
Spread
VT -0.6
Total
53
Moneyline
VT-106CAL+106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VT advantageevenCAL advantage →
VT throw
CAL coverage #52CAL pass rush #151
VT +29
VT run
CAL linebackers #81
VT +51
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
CAL +12
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
VT +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Jaquez White
X · CAL
CB1 · VT
78.7
90.0
VT +11
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Cam Sidney
X · VT
CB1 · CAL
74.1
78.5
CAL +4
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · VT
MLB · CAL
71.4
69.7
dead even
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · CAL
MLB · VT
69.4
68.4
dead even
over the middle
Luke Reynolds
vs
Khamani Hudson
TE · VT
FS · CAL
67.2
61.9
VT +5
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · CAL
EDGE · VT
43.6
78.8
VT +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia Tech
opponent
California
home+0.5
Virginia#49
-7.6away
home+12.3
Stanford#96
+9.2home
home-3.5
Pittsburgh#33
-6.6home
away-16.1
SMU#18
-19.2away
away-12.8
Clemson#27
-10.9home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVT +0.695% interval: -24.5 to 23.380% interval: -18 to 16.8-18+17VT wins 52%CAL wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CAL 28–28 VTCAL 25–53 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 28–49 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 32–46 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 35–42 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 39–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 42–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 46–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 49–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 53–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 21–49 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 25–46 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 28–42 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 32–39 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCAL 35–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 39–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 42–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 46–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 49–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 18–46 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 21–42 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 25–39 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 28–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 32–32 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCAL 35–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 39–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 42–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 46–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 14–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 18–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 21–35 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 25–32 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 28–28 VT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCAL 32–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 35–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 39–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 42–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 11–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 14–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 18–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 21–28 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 25–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 28–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 32–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 35–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 39–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 7–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 11–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 14–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 18–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 21–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 25–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 28–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 32–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 35–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 4–32 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 7–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 11–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 14–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 18–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 21–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 25–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 28–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 32–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalVT +28VT +14PKCAL +14CAL +28margin →