CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
#46Away
Virginia Tech
4-1 · AVR 64.8
20
Final
#94Home
California
2-3 · AVR 55.2
25
Forecast win probability
VT 64.7%35.3% CAL
Projected margin
VT by 5.9
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
VT 27 to CAL 14
Win probability
VT 64.7%
FinalVT 20 · CAL 25model had -5.9, off by 10.9

Current team profiles

Virginia Tech
California

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Passing

VT offense
Higher-ranked profile
VT offense
#24
CAL defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

VT offense
Higher-ranked profile
VT offense
#85
CAL defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT offense
#43
CAL defense
#36
Success rates
47%
#43
37%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#44
0.06
#70
EPA / play
1.26
#45
1.40
#128
Explosiveness
13%
#31
14%
#97
Havoc

When California has the ball

Passing

VT defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT defense
#84
CAL offense
#92
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

VT defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT defense
#16
CAL offense
#123
EPA comparison
-0.11
#16
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

VT defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT defense
#15
CAL offense
#113
Success rates
34%
#15
39%
#113
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.01
#119
EPA / play
1.34
#113
1.28
#42
Explosiveness
24%
#2
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Virginia Tech
QBBryce Baker
127 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
85.638/729
TELuke Reynolds
37 rec · 373 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.5
Run blocking
66.8
Penalties
0
86.49/1017
LBGeorge Ballance
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.5
Coverage
63.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
85.237/1796
LBMathieu Lamah
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.1
Coverage
61.5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.645/1796
DBDQ Smith
10 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
100.0
Missed tackles
0
78.193/2969
RBJeffrey Overton Jr.
455 yds · 4 TD · 5.9 YPC
77.9113/1044
Availability reports · 6
  • Kyle Altuner · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Altuner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Meadows · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Meadows is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Bill Davis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, and he is not expected to play against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Luke Stuewe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stuewe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Shamarius Peterkin · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Peterkin is dealing with a foot injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Takye Heath · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Heath is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

VT
CAL
vs
Offense
85.6
#35 of 138
QB
76.3
#77 of 138
76.8
#58 of 138
RB
73.2
#93 of 138
66.4
#125 of 138
WR
66.0
#128 of 138
86.4
#9 of 138
TE
57.9
#132 of 138
72.2
#34 of 138
OL
67.0
#78 of 138
Defense
81.8
#7 of 138
DL
70.3
#102 of 138
83.0
#11 of 138
LB
70.6
#99 of 138
71.4
#77 of 138
DB
77.1
#15 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Virginia Tech
opponent
California
H-1.0
UVA#50
-13.2A
H-2.0
PITT#30
-10.2H
A-6.0
CLEM#57
-14.0H
H+10.9
STAN#106
+4.0H
A-13.8
SMU#39
-20.6A