AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#38Away
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
29p
#57Home
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
26p
GT 58%42% VT
Spread
GT -3.0
Total
56
Moneyline
GT-140VT+140
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GT advantageevenVT advantage →
GT throw
GT protection #23
even
GT run
GT +28
VT throw
VT +22
VT run
VT +35

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · GT
EDGE · VT
84.8
78.8
GT +6
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · VT
CB1 · GT
74.1
85.0
GT +11
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Jaquez White
X · GT
CB1 · VT
64.6
90.0
VT +25
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · GT
MLB · VT
77.3
68.4
GT +9
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · VT
EDGE · GT
73.1
59.3
VT +14
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · VT
MLB · GT
71.4
60.9
VT +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Tech
opponent
Virginia Tech
home+11.9
Boston College#79
+1.4away
away-7.4
Clemson#27
-12.8away
away+12.8
Stanford#96
+12.3home
away-3.0
Pittsburgh#33
-3.5home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGT +3.095% interval: -26.9 to 20.980% interval: -20.4 to 14.4-20+14GT wins 58%VT wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VT 28–28 GTVT 25–53 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 28–49 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 32–46 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 35–42 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 39–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 42–35 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 46–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 49–28 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 53–25 GT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesVT 21–49 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 25–46 GT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 28–42 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 32–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 35–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 39–32 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 42–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 46–25 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 49–21 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 18–46 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 21–42 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVT 25–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 28–35 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 32–32 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 35–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 39–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 42–21 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 46–18 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 14–42 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 18–39 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 21–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 25–32 GT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 28–28 GT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 32–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 35–21 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 39–18 GT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVT 42–14 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 11–39 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 14–35 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVT 18–32 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 21–28 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 25–25 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVT 28–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 32–18 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 35–14 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 39–11 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 7–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 11–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 14–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 18–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 21–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 25–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 28–14 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 32–11 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 35–7 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 4–32 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 7–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 11–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 14–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 18–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 21–14 GT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 25–11 GT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 28–7 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 32–4 GT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalGT +28GT +14PKVT +14VT +28margin →