AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#33Away
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
33p
#79Home
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
26p
PITT 69%31% BC
Spread
PITT -7.4
Total
59
Moneyline
PITT-228BC+228
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PITT advantageevenBC advantage →
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
PITT +21
PITT run
PITT backs #32
even
BC throw
PITT pass rush #8
PITT +22
BC run
PITT +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · BC
MLB · PITT
79.5
89.0
PITT +9
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · BC
EDGE · PITT
62.7
88.3
PITT +26
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · PITT
MLB · BC
73.8
75.5
dead even
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · BC
CB1 · PITT
55.9
84.7
PITT +29
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Kameron Howard
X · PITT
CB1 · BC
55.6
75.7
BC +20
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · PITT
EDGE · BC
45.5
75.6
BC +30

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Pittsburgh
opponent
Boston College
home+3.0
Georgia Tech#38
-11.9away
away-14.2
Miami#6
-24.2away
home-1.7
Florida State#30
-11.6home
home+12.1
Syracuse#71
+2.2home
away+3.5
Virginia Tech#57
-1.4home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +7.495% interval: -31.3 to 16.580% interval: -24.8 to 10-25+10PITT wins 69%BC wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 32–25 BCBC 21–56 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 25–53 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 28–49 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 32–46 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 35–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 39–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 42–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 46–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 49–28 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 18–53 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 21–49 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 25–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 28–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 32–39 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 35–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 39–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 42–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 46–25 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 14–49 PITT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 18–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 21–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 25–39 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 28–35 PITT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 32–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 35–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 39–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 42–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 11–46 PITT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 14–42 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 18–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 21–35 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 25–32 PITT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBC 28–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 32–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBC 35–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 39–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 7–42 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 11–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 14–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 18–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBC 21–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBC 25–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 28–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 32–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 35–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 4–39 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 7–35 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 11–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBC 14–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 18–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 21–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 25–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 28–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 32–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 0–35 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 4–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 7–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 11–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 14–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 18–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBC 21–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBC 25–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 28–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalPITT +35PITT +21PITT +7BC +7BC +21margin →