CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
PITT 77.0%23.0% BC
Projected margin
PITT by 11.7
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
PITT 30 to BC 7
Win probability
PITT 77.0%

Current team profiles

Pittsburgh
Boston College

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Passing

PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT offense
#38
BC defense
#69
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.14
#69
Pass EPA

Rushing

BC defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT offense
#93
BC defense
#52
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.01
#52
Rush EPA

Drive success

PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT offense
#50
BC defense
#52
Success rates
45%
#50
39%
#52
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#57
0.02
#49
EPA / play
1.23
#74
1.26
#88
Explosiveness
11%
#23
18%
#31
Havoc

When Boston College has the ball

Passing

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT defense
#71
BC offense
#114
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.07
#114
Pass EPA

Rushing

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT defense
#2
BC offense
#100
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.03
#100
Rush EPA

Drive success

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT defense
#6
BC offense
#114
Success rates
32%
#6
39%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#21
0.00
#122
EPA / play
1.41
#130
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
18%
#34
20%
#133
Havoc

Current key players

Pittsburgh
QBMason Heintschel
1304 yds · 14 TD · 1 INT
82.460/729
LBJustin Thompson
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.2
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.729/1796
WRBryan Hamilton
1 rec · 36 yds · 1 TD
81.943/2069
DBRashan Murray
5 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
82.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
10.7
Missed tackles
0
81.843/2969
WRTyreek Robinson
5 rec · 78 yds · 1 TD
80.455/2069
DBShawn Lee Jr.
15 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
4
80.062/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Malik Knight · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Knight is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Mason Heintschel · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Heintschel exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Boston College on Saturday, Octo

  • Elijah Lagg · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Lagg is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Hunt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hunt is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

Boston College
QBMason McKenzie
967 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
67.1194/729
RBMekhi Dodd
32 yds · 0 TD · 16.0 YPC
78.0109/1044
LBAnthony Palano
43 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
72.3
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
73.8228/1796
WRLandon Wright
5 rec · 91 yds · 0 TD
72.7175/2069
DBMarcelous Townsend
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
66.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
70.9390/2969
DBCameron Martinez
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
70.6405/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Bo MacCormack III · RBout · 2026-09-19

    MacCormack III is dealing with an shoulder injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Brady Clough · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Clough has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against SMU on Saturday.

  • Reed Swanson · WRprobable · 2026-09-24

    Swanson is managing with a Undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Virginia Tech on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

PITT
BC
vs
Offense
82.4
#51 of 138
QB
67.1
#114 of 138
74.1
#81 of 138
RB
69.8
#120 of 138
77.6
#20 of 138
WR
69.2
#90 of 138
70.8
#61 of 138
TE
52.0
#137 of 138
66.7
#80 of 138
OL
59.6
#133 of 138
Defense
84.2
#2 of 138
DL
69.0
#116 of 138
78.8
#29 of 138
LB
67.1
#125 of 138
75.7
#26 of 138
DB
70.1
#96 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Pittsburgh
opponent
Boston College
H+10.1
GT#66
-9.6A
H-2.9
FSU#49
-17.3H
A-16.1
MIA#4
-30.4A
H+14.0
SYR#68
+0.4H
A+2.0
VT#46
-7.0H