AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#46Away
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
27p
#68Home
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
25p
WAKE 56%44% CAL
Spread
WAKE -2.5
Total
52
Moneyline
WAKE-128CAL+128
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WAKE advantageevenCAL advantage →
WAKE throw
CAL coverage #52CAL pass rush #151
WAKE +10
WAKE run
CAL linebackers #81
WAKE +18
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
WAKE +13
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
WAKE +47

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · CAL
CB1 · WAKE
78.7
84.7
WAKE +6
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · CAL
MLB · WAKE
69.4
84.0
WAKE +15
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · CAL
EDGE · WAKE
43.6
96.3
WAKE +53
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Cam Sidney
X · WAKE
CB1 · CAL
56.6
78.5
CAL +22
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · WAKE
MLB · CAL
59.7
69.7
CAL +10
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · CAL
FS · WAKE
63.0
66.4
WAKE +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wake Forest
opponent
California
home+2.4
Virginia#49
-7.6away
home+14.2
Stanford#96
+9.2home
away-6.5
NC State#34
-11.5away
away-14.2
SMU#18
-19.2away

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWAKE +2.595% interval: -26.4 to 21.480% interval: -19.9 to 14.9-20+15WAKE wins 56%CAL wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CAL 25–25 WAKECAL 21–49 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 25–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 28–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 32–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 35–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 39–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 42–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 46–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 49–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 18–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 21–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 25–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 28–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 32–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 35–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 39–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 42–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 46–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 14–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 18–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 21–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 25–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 28–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 32–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 35–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 39–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 42–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 11–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 14–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 18–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 21–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 25–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 28–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 32–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 35–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 39–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 7–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 11–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 14–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 18–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 21–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 25–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 28–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 32–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 35–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 4–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 7–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 11–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 14–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 18–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 21–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 25–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 28–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 32–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 0–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 4–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 7–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 11–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 14–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 18–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 21–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 25–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 28–0 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalWAKE +28WAKE +14PKCAL +14CAL +28margin →