AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#57Away
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
20p
#27Home
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
33p
VT 19%81% CLEM
Spread
CLEM -12.8
Total
53
Moneyline
VT+435CLEM-435
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VT advantageevenCLEM advantage →
VT throw
CLEM +28
VT run
CLEM +10
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
VT +8
CLEM run
CLEM +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Will Heldt
LT · VT
EDGE · CLEM
73.1
102.2
CLEM +29
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
Jaquez White
X · CLEM
CB1 · VT
71.6
90.0
VT +18
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Ashton Hampton
X · VT
CB1 · CLEM
74.1
87.1
CLEM +13
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Sammy Brown
RB · VT
MLB · CLEM
71.4
80.8
CLEM +9
off the edge· hunting Denson
Dietrick Pennington
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · CLEM
EDGE · VT
70.7
78.8
VT +8
over the middle
Luke Reynolds
vs
Branden Strozier
TE · VT
FS · CLEM
67.2
76.1
CLEM +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia Tech
opponent
Clemson
away-20.2
Miami#6
-4.9home
home-3.0
Georgia Tech#38
+7.4home
away+0.6
California#68
+10.9away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCLEM +12.895% interval: -11.1 to 36.780% interval: -4.5 to 30.2-4+30VT wins 19%CLEM wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CLEM 35–21 VTCLEM 32–46 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 35–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLEM 39–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 42–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 46–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLEM 49–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 53–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLEM 56–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 60–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLEM 28–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 32–39 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 35–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 39–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 42–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLEM 46–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLEM 49–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLEM 53–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLEM 56–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLEM 25–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 28–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLEM 32–32 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLEM 35–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLEM 39–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLEM 42–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLEM 46–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLEM 49–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 53–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 21–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 25–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 28–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLEM 32–25 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLEM 35–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCLEM 39–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLEM 42–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLEM 46–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLEM 49–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 18–32 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 21–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLEM 25–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLEM 28–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLEM 32–18 VT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLEM 35–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLEM 39–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLEM 42–7 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 46–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 14–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLEM 18–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLEM 21–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLEM 25–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLEM 28–14 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCLEM 32–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLEM 35–7 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 39–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLEM 42–0 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLEM 11–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLEM 14–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLEM 18–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLEM 21–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLEM 25–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLEM 28–7 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLEM 32–4 VT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLEM 35–0 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalVT +14PKCLEM +14CLEM +28CLEM +42margin →