AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#38Away
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
27p
#33Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
30p
GT 42%58% PITT
Spread
PITT -3.0
Total
57
Moneyline
GT+137PITT-137
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GT advantageevenPITT advantage →
GT throw
GT protection #23PITT pass rush #8
PITT +11
GT run
PITT +7
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
PITT +13
PITT run
PITT backs #32
PITT +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · GT
EDGE · PITT
84.8
88.3
PITT +3
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · GT
MLB · PITT
77.3
89.0
PITT +12
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · GT
CB1 · PITT
64.6
84.7
PITT +20
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · PITT
CB1 · GT
55.6
85.0
GT +29
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · PITT
MLB · GT
73.8
60.9
PITT +13
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · PITT
EDGE · GT
45.5
59.3
GT +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Tech
opponent
Pittsburgh
home+11.9
Boston College#79
+7.4away
home+0.4
Louisville#28
-4.1away
away+3.0
Virginia Tech#57
+3.5away

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +3.095% interval: -20.9 to 26.980% interval: -14.4 to 20.4-14+20GT wins 42%PITT wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 28–28 GTPITT 25–53 GT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPITT 28–49 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 32–46 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPITT 35–42 GT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 39–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 42–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 46–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 49–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 53–25 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 21–49 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 25–46 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 28–42 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 32–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 35–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 39–32 GT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 42–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 46–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 49–21 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 18–46 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 21–42 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 25–39 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 28–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 32–32 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPITT 35–28 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPITT 39–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 42–21 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 46–18 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 14–42 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 18–39 GT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 21–35 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 25–32 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 28–28 GT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 32–25 GT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPITT 35–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 39–18 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 42–14 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 11–39 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 14–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 18–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 21–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 25–25 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 28–21 GT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 32–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 35–14 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 39–11 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 7–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 11–32 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 14–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 18–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 21–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 25–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 28–14 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 32–11 GT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 35–7 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 4–32 GT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPITT 7–28 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 11–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 14–21 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 18–18 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 21–14 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 25–11 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 28–7 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 32–4 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalGT +28GT +14PKPITT +14PITT +28margin →