AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#30Away
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
36p
#79Home
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
24p
FSU 79%21% BC
Spread
FSU -11.6
Total
60
Moneyline
FSU-366BC+366
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FSU advantageevenBC advantage →
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
FSU +25
FSU run
even
BC throw
FSU +12
BC run
FSU +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Kameron Howard
X · FSU
CB1 · BC
87.7
75.7
FSU +12
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · BC
MLB · FSU
79.5
79.5
dead even
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · FSU
MLB · BC
68.8
75.5
BC +7
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · FSU
EDGE · BC
68.0
75.6
BC +8
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Rylan Kennedy
LT · BC
EDGE · FSU
62.7
67.8
FSU +5
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · BC
CB1 · FSU
55.9
73.6
FSU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida State
opponent
Boston College
home-2.5
SMU#18
-20.0away
away-10.0
Miami#6
-24.2away
away+1.7
Pittsburgh#33
-7.4home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +11.695% interval: -35.5 to 12.380% interval: -29 to 5.8-29+6FSU wins 79%BC wins 21%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FSU 39–25 BCBC 21–63 FSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBC 25–60 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 28–56 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 32–53 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 35–49 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 39–46 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 42–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 46–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 49–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 18–60 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 21–56 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 25–53 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 28–49 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBC 32–46 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 35–42 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 39–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 42–35 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 46–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 14–56 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 18–53 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 21–49 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 25–46 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 28–42 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 32–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 35–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 39–32 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 42–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 11–53 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 14–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 18–46 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 21–42 FSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 25–39 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 28–35 FSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBC 32–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 35–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 39–25 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 7–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 11–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 14–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 18–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 21–35 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 25–32 FSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBC 28–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 32–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 35–21 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 4–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 7–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 11–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 14–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 18–32 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBC 21–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 25–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 28–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 32–18 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 0–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 4–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 7–35 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 11–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 14–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 18–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 21–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 25–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 28–14 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalFSU +42FSU +28FSU +14PKBC +14margin →