AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 8:30 PM
Ireland Trophy; Frank Leahy Memorial Bowl
#79Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
15p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
45p
BC 2%98% ND
Spread
ND -29.8
Total
59
Moneyline
BC—ND—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BC advantageevenND advantage →
BC throw
ND +45
BC run
ND +28
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +37
ND run
BC +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · BC
MLB · ND
79.5
86.5
ND +7
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Leonard Moore
X · BC
CB1 · ND
55.9
101.6
ND +46
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · BC
EDGE · ND
62.7
88.4
ND +26
over the middle
Kaelan Chudzinski
vs
Luke Talich
TE · BC
FS · ND
63.6
86.9
ND +23
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Kameron Howard
X · ND
CB1 · BC
74.7
75.7
dead even
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · ND
MLB · BC
56.9
75.5
BC +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boston College
opponent
Notre Dame
away-24.2
Miami#6
+8.2home
away-20.0
SMU#18
+12.3home
home+2.2
Syracuse#71
+24.5away

Projected margin

80% between 12 and 47
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +29.895% interval: 5.9 to 53.780% interval: 12.4 to 47.2+12+47BC wins 2%ND wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 42–14 BCND 39–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 42–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 46–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 49–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 53–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 56–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 60–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 63–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 67–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 35–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 39–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 42–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 46–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 49–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 53–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 56–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 60–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 63–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 32–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 35–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 39–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 42–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 46–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesND 49–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 53–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 56–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 60–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 28–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 32–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 35–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 39–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 42–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesND 46–11 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 49–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 53–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 56–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 25–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 28–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 32–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 35–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 39–11 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 42–7 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 46–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 49–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ND 21–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 25–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 28–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 32–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 35–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 39–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 42–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 18–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesND 21–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 25–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 28–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesND 32–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 35–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKND +14ND +28ND +42ND +56margin →