AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#96Away
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
20p
#57Home
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
33p
STAN 20%80% VT
Spread
VT -12.3
Total
53
Moneyline
STAN+396VT-396
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← STAN advantageevenVT advantage →
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
VT +40
STAN run
VT +13
VT throw
VT +27
VT run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
VT +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Matt Rose
RB · VT
MLB · STAN
71.4
78.1
STAN +7
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Jay Green
X · VT
CB1 · STAN
74.1
70.7
VT +3
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Jaquez White
X · STAN
CB1 · VT
52.4
90.0
VT +38
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · VT
EDGE · STAN
73.1
65.5
VT +8
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · STAN
MLB · VT
64.3
68.4
VT +4
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · STAN
EDGE · VT
52.8
78.8
VT +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Stanford
opponent
Virginia Tech
home-12.8
Georgia Tech#38
-3.0home
away-9.2
California#68
+0.6away
home-14.8
Miami#6
-20.2away
home-20.9
SMU#18
-16.1away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVT +12.395% interval: -11.6 to 36.280% interval: -5.1 to 29.7-5+30STAN wins 20%VT wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VT 35–21 STANVT 32–46 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 35–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 39–39 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 42–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 46–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 49–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 53–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 56–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 60–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesVT 28–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 32–39 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 35–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 39–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 42–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 46–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 49–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 53–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 56–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 25–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 28–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 32–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 35–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVT 39–25 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 42–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 46–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 49–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVT 53–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 21–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 25–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 28–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 32–25 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVT 35–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 39–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 42–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 46–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 49–7 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 18–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 21–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 25–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVT 28–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 32–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 35–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 39–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 42–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 46–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 14–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 18–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 21–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 25–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 28–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVT 32–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 35–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 39–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVT 42–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 11–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 14–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 18–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 21–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVT 25–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 28–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 32–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 35–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSTAN +14PKVT +14VT +28VT +42margin →