AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#46Away
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
25p
#38Home
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
31p
WAKE 34%66% GT
Spread
GT -6.1
Total
55
Moneyline
WAKE+198GT-198
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WAKE advantageevenGT advantage →
WAKE throw
even
WAKE run
even
GT throw
GT protection #23
WAKE +24
GT run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · GT
EDGE · WAKE
84.8
96.3
WAKE +11
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · GT
MLB · WAKE
77.3
84.0
WAKE +7
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · GT
CB1 · WAKE
64.6
84.7
WAKE +20
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · WAKE
CB1 · GT
56.6
85.0
GT +28
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · WAKE
MLB · GT
59.7
60.9
dead even
over the middle
Gavin Harris
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · GT
FS · WAKE
40.4
66.4
WAKE +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wake Forest
opponent
Georgia Tech
away-8.2
Louisville#28
+0.4home
home+0.6
Duke#39
+4.2home
home+14.2
Stanford#96
+12.8away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGT +6.195% interval: -17.8 to 3080% interval: -11.3 to 23.5-11+24WAKE wins 34%GT wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GT 32–25 WAKEGT 28–49 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 32–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 35–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 39–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 42–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 46–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 49–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 53–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 56–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 25–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 28–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 32–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 35–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 39–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 42–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 46–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGT 49–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 53–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 21–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 25–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 28–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 32–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 35–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 39–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 42–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 46–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 49–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 18–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 21–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 25–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 28–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGT 32–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesGT 35–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 39–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 42–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 46–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 14–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 18–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 21–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 25–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGT 28–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 32–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 35–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 39–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 42–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 11–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 14–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 18–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 21–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGT 25–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 28–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 32–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 35–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 39–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 7–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 11–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 14–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGT 18–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 21–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 25–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 28–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 32–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 35–0 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWAKE +21WAKE +7GT +7GT +21GT +35margin →