AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM
#80Away
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
7p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
48p
UNT 0%100% IU
Spread
IU -40.8
Total
56
Moneyline
UNT—IU—
Against the market
with itline IU -41.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNT advantageevenIU advantage →
UNT throw
IU +32
UNT run
IU +63
IU throw
IU +40
IU run
IU +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · IU
EDGE · UNT
94.5
70.7
IU +24
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · IU
CB1 · UNT
78.0
73.0
IU +5
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · UNT
MLB · IU
51.6
93.9
IU +42
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · UNT
CB1 · IU
56.0
86.8
IU +31
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · UNT
EDGE · IU
42.5
96.6
IU +54
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · IU
MLB · UNT
77.5
58.9
IU +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Projected margin

80% between 20 and 56
-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +40.8MKT95% interval: 10 to 6380% interval: 20 to 56+20+56UNT wins 0%IU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 49–7 UNTIU 46–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 49–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 53–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 56–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 60–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 63–14 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 67–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 70–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 74–4 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 42–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 46–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 49–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 53–18 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 56–14 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 60–11 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 63–7 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 67–4 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 70–0 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 39–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 42–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 46–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 49–14 UNT neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesIU 53–11 UNT neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesIU 56–7 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 60–4 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 63–0 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IU 35–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 39–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 42–14 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 46–11 UNT neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesIU 49–7 UNT neighborhood · ~4.2% of outcomesIU 53–4 UNT neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesIU 56–0 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IU 32–18 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 35–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 39–11 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 42–7 UNT neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesIU 46–4 UNT neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesIU 49–0 UNT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IU 28–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 32–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 35–7 UNT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 39–4 UNT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 42–0 UNT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IU 25–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 28–7 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 32–4 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 35–0 UNT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalIU +14IU +28IU +42IU +56IU +70margin →