AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 4:15 PM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
7p
#22Home
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
41p
NIU 1%99% IOWA
Spread
IOWA -33.8
Total
48
Moneyline
NIU—IOWA—
Against the market
IOWA +2.3line IOWA -31.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NIU advantageevenIOWA advantage →
NIU throw
NIU protection #66IOWA pass rush #76
IOWA +56
NIU run
IOWA +7
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
IOWA +21
IOWA run
IOWA +80

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · NIU
CB1 · IOWA
54.9
91.9
IOWA +37
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · IOWA
EDGE · NIU
91.6
40.7
IOWA +51
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · NIU
MLB · IOWA
56.7
62.0
IOWA +5
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · NIU
EDGE · IOWA
45.0
68.5
IOWA +23
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
James Little IV
TE · IOWA
FS · NIU
72.6
36.0
IOWA +37
when IOWA throws
Reece Vander Zee
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · IOWA
CB1 · NIU
48.0
59.3
NIU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878

Projected margin

80% between 14 and 50
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +33.8MKT95% interval: 4 to 5980% interval: 14 to 50+14+50NIU wins 1%IOWA wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IOWA 42–7 NIUIOWA 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 56–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 60–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 63–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 67–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 53–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 56–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 60–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 63–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesIOWA 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesIOWA 49–7 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 53–4 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 56–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IOWA 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesIOWA 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~4.2% of outcomesIOWA 46–4 NIU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesIOWA 49–0 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IOWA 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesIOWA 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–0 NIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IOWA 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IOWA 18–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 21–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 25–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–0 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalIOWA +7IOWA +21IOWA +35IOWA +49IOWA +63margin →