AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:30 PM
#84Away
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
7p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
42p
WMU 1%99% MICH
Spread
MICH -35.0
Total
49
Moneyline
WMU—MICH—
Against the market
MICH +7.5line MICH -27.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WMU advantageevenMICH advantage →
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
MICH +45
WMU run
MICH linebackers #95
WMU +11
MICH throw
MICH +19
MICH run
WMU linebackers #114
MICH +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · WMU
EDGE · MICH
72.2
107.8
MICH +36
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · MICH
EDGE · WMU
88.1
81.6
MICH +7
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · MICH
CB1 · WMU
84.8
78.2
MICH +7
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · MICH
MLB · WMU
80.1
56.5
MICH +24
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Smith Snowden
X · WMU
CB1 · MICH
47.0
88.1
MICH +41
over the middle
Zack Marshall
vs
Joshua Franklin
TE · MICH
FS · WMU
61.4
67.3
WMU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 52
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +35.0MKT95% interval: 7 to 6280% interval: 15 to 52+15+52WMU wins 1%MICH wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 42–7 WMUMICH 39–32 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 42–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 46–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 49–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 53–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 56–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 60–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 63–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 67–4 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 35–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 39–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 42–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 46–18 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 49–14 WMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMICH 53–11 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 56–7 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 60–4 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 63–0 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 32–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 35–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 39–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 42–14 WMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMICH 46–11 WMU neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesMICH 49–7 WMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMICH 53–4 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 56–0 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MICH 28–21 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 32–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 35–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 39–11 WMU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMICH 42–7 WMU neighborhood · ~4.2% of outcomesMICH 46–4 WMU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMICH 49–0 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 25–18 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 28–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 32–11 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 35–7 WMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMICH 39–4 WMU neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesMICH 42–0 WMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 21–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 25–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 28–7 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 32–4 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 35–0 WMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 18–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 25–4 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 28–0 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMICH +7MICH +21MICH +35MICH +49MICH +63margin →