AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:30 PM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
9p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
47p
BALL 0%100% OSU
Spread
OSU -37.9
Total
57
Moneyline
BALL—OSU—
Against the market
BALL +12.6line OSU -50.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenOSU advantage →
BALL throw
OSU +47
BALL run
OSU +72
OSU throw
OSU +79
OSU run
OSU +70

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · OSU
CB1 · BALL
96.0
55.4
OSU +41
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Jared Badie
RB · OSU
MLB · BALL
84.6
60.1
OSU +24
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Maverick Gracio
LT · OSU
EDGE · BALL
81.7
47.5
OSU +34
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · BALL
MLB · OSU
49.3
79.4
OSU +30
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · BALL
CB1 · OSU
47.0
69.4
OSU +22
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · BALL
EDGE · OSU
12.8
95.4
OSU +83

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ball State
opponent
Ohio State
away-5.2
Kent State#128
+49.7home
away-29.5
Northwestern#37
+25.4home

Projected margin

80% between 18 and 55
-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +37.9MKT95% interval: 8 to 6480% interval: 18 to 55+18+55BALL wins 0%OSU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 46–11 BALLOSU 42–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOSU 46–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 49–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 53–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 56–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 60–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 63–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 67–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 70–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 49–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 53–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 56–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 60–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 63–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOSU 67–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 46–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 49–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOSU 53–11 BALL neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOSU 56–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 60–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 63–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 42–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 46–11 BALL neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesOSU 49–7 BALL neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesOSU 53–4 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 56–0 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OSU 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 39–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 42–7 BALL neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOSU 46–4 BALL neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOSU 49–0 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 35–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 39–4 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 42–0 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOSU 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 32–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 35–0 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalOSU +7OSU +21OSU +35OSU +49OSU +63margin →