AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#112Away
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
24p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
34p
EMU 24%76% MSU
Spread
MSU -10.3
Total
58
Moneyline
EMU+315MSU-315
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← EMU advantageevenMSU advantage →
EMU throw
EMU +5
EMU run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
MSU +29
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
MSU +5
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
MSU +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Charles Brantley
X · EMU
CB1 · MSU
61.6
85.6
MSU +24
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Barry Manning
RB · MSU
MLB · EMU
83.7
57.4
MSU +26
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · EMU
MLB · MSU
50.0
86.7
MSU +37
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · EMU
EDGE · MSU
48.5
68.5
MSU +20
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · MSU
CB1 · EMU
54.5
61.5
EMU +7
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Caleb Gash
TE · EMU
FS · MSU
61.5
48.6
EMU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Eastern Michigan
opponent
Michigan State
home-4.3
Toledo#73
+17.6home
away-12.6
Wisconsin#58
-4.8away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMSU +10.395% interval: -13.6 to 34.280% interval: -7.1 to 27.7-7+28EMU wins 24%MSU wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MSU 32–25 EMUMSU 28–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMSU 32–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 35–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 39–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 42–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 46–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 49–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 53–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 56–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 25–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 28–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 32–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 35–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 39–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 42–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 46–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 49–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSU 53–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 21–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 25–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 28–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 32–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 35–28 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSU 39–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSU 42–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 46–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 49–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 18–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 21–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 25–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 28–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 32–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 35–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 39–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 42–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 46–11 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 14–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 18–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 21–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 25–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 28–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 32–18 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 35–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 39–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 42–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 11–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 14–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 18–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 21–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 25–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 28–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 32–11 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 35–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 39–4 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 7–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMSU 11–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 14–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 18–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 21–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 25–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 28–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 32–4 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 35–0 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalEMU +21EMU +7MSU +7MSU +21MSU +35margin →