AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
#114Away
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
17p
#41Home
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
37p
BGSU 9%91% NEB
Spread
NEB -20.1
Total
54
Moneyline
BGSU+1024NEB-1024
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BGSU advantageevenNEB advantage →
BGSU throw
NEB +48
BGSU run
NEB +50
NEB throw
NEB +12
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · NEB
EDGE · BGSU
76.6
95.5
BGSU +19
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · NEB
CB1 · BGSU
70.0
79.7
BGSU +10
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · BGSU
MLB · NEB
52.8
83.3
NEB +30
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · BGSU
CB1 · NEB
38.4
84.3
NEB +46
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · NEB
MLB · BGSU
52.0
69.1
BGSU +17
over the middle
Luke Lindenmeyer
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · NEB
FS · BGSU
56.4
62.8
BGSU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEB +20.195% interval: -3.8 to 44.180% interval: 2.8 to 37.5+3+38BGSU wins 9%NEB wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NEB 39–18 BGSUNEB 35–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 39–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 42–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 46–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 49–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 53–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 56–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 60–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 63–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 32–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 35–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 39–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 42–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 46–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 49–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 53–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 56–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 60–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 28–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 32–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 35–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 39–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 42–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 46–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 49–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 53–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 56–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 25–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 28–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 32–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 35–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 39–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEB 42–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 46–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 49–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 53–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 21–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 25–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 28–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 32–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 35–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 39–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 42–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 46–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 49–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 18–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 21–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 25–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 28–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 32–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEB 35–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 39–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 42–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NEB 14–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 18–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 21–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 25–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 28–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 32–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 35–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBGSU +7NEB +7NEB +21NEB +35NEB +49margin →