AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:00 PM
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
16p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
40p
WKU 5%95% IU
Spread
IU -23.6
Total
56
Moneyline
WKU+1816IU-1816
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenIU advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
IU +46
WKU run
IU +77
IU throw
WKU pass rush #101
IU +26
IU run
IU +61

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · IU
CB1 · WKU
78.0
87.0
WKU +9
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Zeiqui Lawton
LT · IU
EDGE · WKU
94.5
61.1
IU +33
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · WKU
MLB · IU
56.8
93.9
IU +37
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · WKU
CB1 · IU
57.8
86.8
IU +29
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · IU
MLB · WKU
77.5
58.1
IU +19
over the middle
Brock Schott
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · IU
FS · WKU
55.5
71.4
WKU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Projected margin

80% between 6 and 41
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +23.695% interval: -0.3 to 47.580% interval: 6.3 to 41+6+41WKU wins 5%IU wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 39–18 WKUIU 35–42 WKU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesIU 39–39 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 42–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 46–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 49–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 53–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 56–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 60–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 63–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 32–39 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 46–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 49–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 53–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 56–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 60–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 28–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 42–21 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 46–18 WKU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 49–14 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 53–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 56–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 25–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 39–18 WKU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIU 42–14 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 46–11 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 49–7 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 53–4 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 21–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 35–14 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 39–11 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 42–7 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 46–4 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 49–0 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 18–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 32–11 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 35–7 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 39–4 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 42–0 WKU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IU 14–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 28–7 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 32–4 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 35–0 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWKU +7IU +7IU +21IU +35IU +49margin →