AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#133Away
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
8p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
47p
UTEP 0%100% MICH
Spread
MICH -38.7
Total
55
Moneyline
UTEP—MICH—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTEP advantageevenMICH advantage →
UTEP throw
MICH +79
UTEP run
MICH linebackers #95
MICH +54
MICH throw
MICH +55
MICH run
MICH +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Shay Smith
RB · MICH
MLB · UTEP
80.1
80.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · MICH
EDGE · UTEP
88.1
63.5
MICH +25
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Kode Lowe
X · MICH
CB1 · UTEP
84.8
61.7
MICH +23
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Smith Snowden
X · UTEP
CB1 · MICH
36.6
88.1
MICH +51
over the middle
Zack Marshall
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · MICH
FS · UTEP
61.4
57.7
MICH +4
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · UTEP
MLB · MICH
51.0
65.7
MICH +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Projected margin

80% between 21 and 56
-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +38.795% interval: 14.8 to 62.680% interval: 21.3 to 56.1+21+56UTEP wins 0%MICH wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 49–7 UTEPMICH 46–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 49–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 53–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 56–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 60–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 63–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 67–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 70–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 74–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMICH 42–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 46–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 49–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 53–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 56–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 60–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 63–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 67–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 70–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 39–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 42–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 46–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 49–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMICH 53–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesMICH 56–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 60–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 63–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MICH 35–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 39–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 42–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 46–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesMICH 49–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesMICH 53–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 56–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 32–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 35–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 39–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 42–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesMICH 46–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesMICH 49–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 28–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 32–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 35–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 39–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 42–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 25–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 28–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 32–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 35–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMICH +14MICH +28MICH +42MICH +56MICH +70margin →