AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
8p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
58p
KENT 0%100% OSU
Spread
OSU -49.7
Total
66
Moneyline
KENT—OSU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenOSU advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
OSU +33
KENT run
OSU +64
OSU throw
OSU +67
OSU run
OSU +58

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · OSU
CB1 · KENT
96.0
59.4
OSU +37
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Darian Blachewicz
LT · OSU
EDGE · KENT
81.7
65.9
OSU +16
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · OSU
MLB · KENT
84.6
53.9
OSU +31
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · KENT
MLB · OSU
53.3
79.4
OSU +26
off the edge· hunting DeShields
Dustyn Morell
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · KENT
EDGE · OSU
24.4
95.4
OSU +71
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · KENT
CB1 · OSU
44.9
69.4
OSU +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Projected margin

80% between 32 and 67
-3+3+7+14PKOSU +49.795% interval: 25.8 to 73.680% interval: 32.3 to 67.1+32+67KENT wins 0%OSU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 56–7 KENTOSU 53–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 56–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 60–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 63–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 67–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 70–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 74–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 77–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 81–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 60–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 63–14 KENT neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOSU 67–11 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 70–7 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 74–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 77–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 56–14 KENT neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOSU 60–11 KENT neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesOSU 63–7 KENT neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOSU 67–4 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 70–0 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OSU 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 53–11 KENT neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOSU 56–7 KENT neighborhood · ~4.1% of outcomesOSU 60–4 KENT neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOSU 63–0 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 49–7 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 53–4 KENT neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOSU 56–0 KENT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 46–4 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 49–0 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 42–0 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalOSU +21OSU +35OSU +49OSU +63OSU +77margin →