AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:30 PM
#112Away
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
20p
#58Home
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
32p
EMU 20%80% WIS
Spread
WIS -12.6
Total
52
Moneyline
EMU+408WIS-408
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← EMU advantageevenWIS advantage →
EMU throw
even
EMU run
WIS +39
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
WIS +27
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
WIS +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Javan Robinson
X · EMU
CB1 · WIS
61.6
82.8
WIS +21
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Mason Posa
RB · EMU
MLB · WIS
50.0
79.6
WIS +30
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · EMU
EDGE · WIS
48.5
79.0
WIS +30
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Barry Manning
RB · WIS
MLB · EMU
69.7
57.4
WIS +12
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · WIS
CB1 · EMU
44.2
61.5
EMU +17
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Bryce West
TE · EMU
FS · WIS
61.5
43.8
EMU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWIS +12.695% interval: -11.3 to 36.580% interval: -4.8 to 30-5+30EMU wins 20%WIS wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WIS 32–18 EMUWIS 28–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 32–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 35–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 39–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 42–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 46–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 49–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 53–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 56–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 25–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 28–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 32–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 35–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 39–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWIS 42–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 46–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 49–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 53–11 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 21–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 25–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 28–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 32–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWIS 35–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWIS 39–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 42–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 46–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 49–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 18–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 21–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 25–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 28–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWIS 32–18 EMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWIS 35–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 39–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 42–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 46–4 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 14–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 18–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 21–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 25–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 28–14 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWIS 32–11 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 35–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 39–4 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 42–0 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 11–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 14–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 18–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 21–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 25–11 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 28–7 EMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 32–4 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWIS 35–0 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WIS 7–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 11–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 14–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 18–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 21–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 25–4 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 28–0 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalEMU +14PKWIS +14WIS +28WIS +42margin →