AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#41Away
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
32p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
NEB 67%33% MSU
Spread
NEB -6.5
Total
58
Moneyline
NEB-203MSU+203
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEB advantageevenMSU advantage →
NEB throw
NEB +31
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
even
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
NEB +45
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · MSU
MLB · NEB
83.7
83.3
dead even
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Charles Brantley
X · NEB
CB1 · MSU
70.0
85.6
MSU +16
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · NEB
EDGE · MSU
76.6
68.5
NEB +8
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · MSU
CB1 · NEB
54.5
84.3
NEB +30
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · NEB
MLB · MSU
52.0
86.7
MSU +35
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · MSU
EDGE · NEB
42.1
73.3
NEB +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nebraska
opponent
Michigan State
away+1.2
Rutgers#48
-7.8away
home-7.8
Washington#15
-16.7home
away-2.9
Illinois#35
-6.8home
away-24.0
Oregon#2
-27.9home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEB +6.595% interval: -30.4 to 17.580% interval: -23.8 to 10.9-24+11NEB wins 67%MSU wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NEB 32–25 MSUMSU 21–56 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 25–53 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 28–49 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSU 32–46 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 35–42 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 39–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 42–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 46–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 49–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 18–53 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 21–49 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 25–46 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 28–42 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 32–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 35–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 39–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 42–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 46–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 14–49 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 18–46 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 21–42 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 25–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 28–35 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 32–32 NEB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 35–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 39–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 42–21 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 11–46 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 14–42 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 18–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 21–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 25–32 NEB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMSU 28–28 NEB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 32–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 35–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 39–18 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 7–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 11–39 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 14–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 18–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 21–28 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 25–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 28–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 32–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 35–14 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 4–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 7–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 11–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 14–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 18–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 21–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 25–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 28–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 32–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 0–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 4–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 7–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 11–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 14–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 18–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 21–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 25–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 28–7 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalNEB +35NEB +21NEB +7MSU +7MSU +21margin →