AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
Illibuck Trophy
#35Away
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
14p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
40p
ILL 4%96% OSU
Spread
OSU -26.1
Total
54
Moneyline
ILL+2588OSU-2588
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ILL advantageevenOSU advantage →
ILL throw
ILL +5
ILL run
OSU +10
OSU throw
OSU +56
OSU run
OSU +42

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · OSU
EDGE · ILL
81.7
78.8
dead even
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Matthew Bailey
X · OSU
CB1 · ILL
96.0
62.8
OSU +33
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · ILL
EDGE · OSU
61.6
95.4
OSU +34
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · ILL
MLB · OSU
68.9
79.4
OSU +10
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
James Kreutz
RB · OSU
MLB · ILL
84.6
63.3
OSU +21
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · ILL
CB1 · OSU
68.9
69.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Illinois
opponent
Ohio State
away+1.1
Maryland#47
+29.7home
away-3.2
Northwestern#37
+25.4home
home-18.6
Oregon#2
+5.0home
home+2.9
Nebraska#41
+21.5away
home-3.4
Iowa#22
+15.2away

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 44
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +26.195% interval: 2.2 to 5080% interval: 8.7 to 43.5+9+44ILL wins 4%OSU wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 42–14 ILLOSU 39–39 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 42–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 46–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOSU 49–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 53–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOSU 56–21 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 60–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 63–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 67–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 35–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 39–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 42–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 46–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 49–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 53–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 56–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOSU 60–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 63–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 32–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 35–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 39–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 42–21 ILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 46–18 ILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 49–14 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 53–11 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 56–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 60–4 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 28–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 32–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOSU 35–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 39–18 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 42–14 ILL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOSU 46–11 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 49–7 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 53–4 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 56–0 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 25–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 28–21 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOSU 32–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 35–14 ILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 39–11 ILL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOSU 42–7 ILL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 46–4 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 49–0 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OSU 21–21 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 25–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 28–14 ILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 32–11 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 35–7 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 39–4 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 42–0 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 18–18 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 21–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 25–11 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 28–7 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 32–4 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 35–0 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKOSU +14OSU +28OSU +42OSU +56margin →