AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
Shillelagh Trophy
#4Away
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
40p
#69Home
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
16p
ND 95%5% PUR
Spread
ND -23.6
Total
57
Moneyline
ND-1834PUR+1834
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ND advantageevenPUR advantage →
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +45
ND run
PUR +8
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
ND +47
PUR run
ND +57

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Leonard Moore
X · PUR
CB1 · ND
68.9
101.6
ND +33
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Mister Clark
X · ND
CB1 · PUR
74.7
73.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · PUR
EDGE · ND
57.3
88.4
ND +31
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · PUR
MLB · ND
56.4
86.5
ND +30
over the middle
Kylan Fox
vs
Luke Talich
TE · PUR
FS · ND
45.8
86.9
ND +41
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Charles Correa
RB · ND
MLB · PUR
56.9
64.8
PUR +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Projected margin

80% between -41 and -6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +23.695% interval: -47.5 to 0.380% interval: -41 to -6.2-41-6ND wins 95%PUR wins 5%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 39–18 PURPUR 14–63 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 18–60 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 21–56 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 25–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 28–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 32–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 35–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 39–39 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 42–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 11–60 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 14–56 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 18–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 21–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 25–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 28–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 32–39 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 35–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 39–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 7–56 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 11–53 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 14–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 18–46 ND neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 21–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 25–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 28–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 32–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 35–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 4–53 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 7–49 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 11–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 14–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 18–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPUR 21–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 25–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 28–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 32–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 0–49 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 4–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 7–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 11–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 14–35 ND neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 18–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 21–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 25–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 28–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PUR 0–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 4–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 7–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 11–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 14–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 18–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 21–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 25–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)PUR 0–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 4–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 7–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 11–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 14–21 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 18–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 21–14 ND neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalND +49ND +35ND +21ND +7PUR +7margin →