CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 2:00 PM ET
Shillelagh Trophy
Forecast win probability
ND 97.7%2.3% PUR
Projected margin
ND by 30.6
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
ND 50 to ND 10
Win probability
ND 97.7%
FinalND 49 · PUR 10model had -30.6, off by 8.4

Current team profiles

Notre Dame
Purdue

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#8
PUR defense
#119
EPA comparison
0.54
#8
0.34
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#19
PUR defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.24
#19
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#3
PUR defense
#120
Success rates
53%
#3
46%
#120
Success rate
More metrics
0.36
#4
0.25
#132
EPA / play
1.15
#107
1.40
#127
Explosiveness
10%
#9
14%
#105
Havoc

When Purdue has the ball

Passing

PUR offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#34
PUR offense
#24
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.40
#24
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#2
PUR offense
#63
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#9
PUR offense
#44
Success rates
33%
#9
46%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
-0.09
#11
0.25
#29
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.21
#83
Explosiveness
23%
#3
12%
#30
Havoc

Current key players

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

Purdue
QBRyan Browne
1390 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
77.595/729
WRAsaad Waseem
27 rec · 453 yds · 1 TD
83.630/2069
DBMister Clark
5 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
76.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
59
Passer rating allowed
95.8
Missed tackles
1
79.965/2969
RBFame Ijeboi
354 yds · 6 TD · 4.1 YPC
79.590/1044
WRXavier Townsend
28 rec · 307 yds · 2 TD
74.0146/2069
LBHudson Miller
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
64.4
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
70.1362/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Kylan Fox · TEout · 2026-08-13

    Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ND
PUR
vs
Offense
92.4
#5 of 138
QB
77.5
#72 of 138
83.8
#15 of 138
RB
75.2
#72 of 138
82.3
#5 of 138
WR
77.0
#26 of 138
59.4
#126 of 138
TE
69.3
#69 of 138
67.2
#77 of 138
OL
61.7
#121 of 138
Defense
83.8
#3 of 138
DL
72.2
#83 of 138
80.0
#22 of 138
LB
65.6
#132 of 138
80.1
#2 of 138
DB
66.1
#133 of 138
Common opponents