CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Little Brown Jug
#19Away
Michigan
3-1 · AVR 71.6
14
Final
#54Home
Minnesota
3-1 · AVR 64.4
20
Forecast win probability
MICH 64.0%36.0% MINN
Projected margin
MICH by 4.5
Projected total
47
80% outcome range
MICH 22 to MINN 13
Win probability
MICH 64.0%
FinalMICH 14 · MINN 20model had -4.5, off by 10.5

Current team profiles

Michigan
Minnesota

When Michigan has the ball

Passing

MINN defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH offense
#74
MINN defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.21
#74
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

MICH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH offense
#93
MINN defense
#107
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

MINN defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH offense
#83
MINN defense
#58
Success rates
42%
#83
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#93
0.04
#57
EPA / play
1.15
#109
1.18
#50
Explosiveness
16%
#102
22%
#6
Havoc

When Minnesota has the ball

Passing

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH defense
#6
MINN offense
#76
EPA comparison
-0.11
#6
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH defense
#12
MINN offense
#123
EPA comparison
-0.14
#12
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
MICH defense
#7
MINN offense
#76
Success rates
33%
#7
43%
#76
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#6
0.05
#106
EPA / play
1.14
#30
1.12
#121
Explosiveness
17%
#49
14%
#63
Havoc

Current key players

Michigan
QBTommy Carr
23 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.111/729
WRJJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87.417/2069
LBNathaniel Staehling
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.3
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
18
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
81.963/1796
CBJyaire Hill
25 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.0
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
73.7
Missed tackles
4
78.583/2969
LBMax Alford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
61.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3130/1796
SJacob Oden
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-3
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
74.8201/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Andrew Sprague · OGout · 2026-09-26

    Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday.

  • John Henry Daley · DLQues. · 2026-09-28

    Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday.

  • Logan Forbes · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday.

Minnesota
QBDrake Lindsey
1087 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
72.5133/729
DBJohn Nestor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
87.2
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
53.8
Missed tackles
2
85.622/2969
DBAydan West
15 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
83.8
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
26.8
Missed tackles
3
81.148/2969
LBNate Cleveland
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.5
Coverage
39.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
79.294/1796
WRNoah Jennings
26 rec · 345 yds · 1 TD
78.468/2069
LBMason Carrier
4 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.5
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.8123/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Ashton Beers · OLout · 2026-10-01

    Minnesota Football: Starting center Ashton Beers out for the season - The Daily Gopher

  • Ryan Estrada · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Estrada is out of action due to a knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • A.J. Turner · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Turner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Beckham Sunderland · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sunderland is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Braiden Stevens · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is ailing from illness, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Zeke Bates · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bates is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MICH
MINN
vs
Offense
91.1
#10 of 138
QB
72.5
#93 of 138
67.4
#132 of 138
RB
74.5
#78 of 138
72.0
#59 of 138
WR
74.7
#35 of 138
62.1
#105 of 138
TE
57.3
#134 of 138
73.6
#24 of 138
OL
76.0
#13 of 138
Defense
80.6
#14 of 138
DL
77.1
#35 of 138
78.0
#36 of 138
LB
77.0
#43 of 138
74.6
#39 of 138
DB
74.7
#37 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Michigan
opponent
Minnesota
H-3.0
PSU#43
-17.6A
H-9.6
IU#5
-24.1A
H+4.2
UCLA#24
-5.0H
H-1.0
IOWA#20
-8.8H