AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
Little Brown Jug
#13Away
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
32p
#54Home
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
19p
MICH 82%18% MINN
Spread
MICH -13.1
Total
51
Moneyline
MICH-443MINN+443
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MICH advantageevenMINN advantage →
MICH throw
MINN pass rush #20
MICH +30
MICH run
MICH +6
MINN throw
MICH +17
MINN run
MICH linebackers #95
MICH +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · MICH
EDGE · MINN
88.1
86.8
dead even
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · MICH
MLB · MINN
80.1
78.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · MINN
EDGE · MICH
50.2
107.8
MICH +58
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
John Nestor
X · MICH
CB1 · MINN
84.8
71.9
MICH +13
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Smith Snowden
X · MINN
CB1 · MICH
61.2
88.1
MICH +27
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · MINN
MLB · MICH
69.0
65.7
MINN +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan
opponent
Minnesota
home+1.2
Indiana#7
-19.4away
home+7.2
Penn State#21
-13.3away
home+7.5
Iowa#22
-8.1home
home+18.4
UCLA#53
+2.8home

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +13.195% interval: -37 to 10.880% interval: -30.5 to 4.3-30+4MICH wins 82%MINN wins 18%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 32–18 MINNMINN 14–56 MICH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 18–53 MICH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 21–49 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 25–46 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 28–42 MICH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 32–39 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 35–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 39–32 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 42–28 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 11–53 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 14–49 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 18–46 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMINN 21–42 MICH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 25–39 MICH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 28–35 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 32–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 35–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 39–25 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 7–49 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 11–46 MICH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 14–42 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 18–39 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 21–35 MICH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 25–32 MICH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 28–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 32–25 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 35–21 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 4–46 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 7–42 MICH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 11–39 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 14–35 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 18–32 MICH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMINN 21–28 MICH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 25–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 28–21 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 32–18 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 0–42 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 4–39 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 7–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 11–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 14–28 MICH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 18–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 21–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 25–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 28–14 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MINN 0–35 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 4–32 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 7–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 11–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 14–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 18–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMINN 21–14 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 25–11 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MINN 0–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 4–25 MICH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 7–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 11–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 14–14 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 18–11 MICH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 21–7 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalMICH +42MICH +28MICH +14PKMINN +14margin →