Passing
ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ILL offense
- #41
- MSU defense
- #109
EPA comparison
0.32
#41
0.29
#109
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ILL 49.3%50.7% MSU
- Projected margin
- MSU by 0.2
- Projected total
- 49
- 80% outcome range
- ILL 18 to MSU 18
- Win probability
- MSU 50.7%
FinalILL 38 · MSU 37model had +0.2, off by 1.2
Current team profiles
Illinois
Michigan StateWhen Illinois has the ball
Rushing
ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ILL offense
- #39
- MSU defense
- #88
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
0.08
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ILL offense
- #15
- MSU defense
- #95
Success rates
50%
#15
43%
#95
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#34
0.18
#114
EPA / play
1.25
#60
1.27
#90
Explosiveness
11%
#14
13%
#119
Havoc
When Michigan State has the ball
Passing
MSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ILL defense
- #126
- MSU offense
- #111
EPA comparison
0.37
#126
0.08
#111
Pass EPA
Rushing
ILL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ILL defense
- #101
- MSU offense
- #110
EPA comparison
0.12
#101
0.00
#110
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ILL defense
- #117
- MSU offense
- #69
Success rates
46%
#117
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#130
0.02
#117
EPA / play
1.27
#93
1.06
#133
Explosiveness
12%
#125
17%
#106
Havoc
Current key players
IllinoisQBKatin Houser
1246 yds · 11 TD · 3 INT
90.814/729
WRCollin Dixon
40 rec · 546 yds · 8 TD
87.019/2069
LBCameron Thomas
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.3
- Coverage
- 84.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 18
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.676/1796
LBWill Holmes
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.4
- Coverage
- 60.3
- Pressures
- 16
- Pass-rush snaps
- 92
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.491/1796
RBJavari Barnett
54 yds · 1 TD · 5.4 YPC
79.393/1044
DBMatthew Bailey
37 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.2
- Coverage
- 79.8
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 38
- Passer rating allowed
- 20.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.681/2969
Availability reports · 11
- Tanner Hollinger · TEout · 2026-08-11
Hollinger has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season
- Alex Perry · WRout · 2026-08-13
Perry is batting with a shoulder injury and will undergo surgery, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- BJ Thurman · TEout · 2026-08-13
Thurman is laid up with foot surgery, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
- Grant Smith · TEout · 2026-08-23
Smith is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.
- Will Vala III · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Vala III is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Ducks on Sunday, October 24t
- Jacob Eberhart · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Eberhart is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Ducks on Sunday, October 24t
- Jacob Harvey · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- Jayshon Platt · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Platt is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will partake against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- John Forster · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Forster is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- Kenyon Alston · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Alston is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- Nas Rankin · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Rankin is nursing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
Michigan StateQBAlessio Milivojevic
851 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
68.2181/729
LBDion Crawford
23 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.4
- Coverage
- 68.0
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.132/1796
LBCaleb Wheatland
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 55.6
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 9
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.8122/1796
WRBraylon Collier
2 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
76.4103/2069
RBCam Edwards
304 yds · 3 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1191/1044
SDevin Vaught
33 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.2
- Coverage
- 58.1
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 59
- Passer rating allowed
- 124.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
73.1271/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Caleb Wheatland · LBQues. · 2026-10-11
Wheatland is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Edwards · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Edwards is dealing with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Fancher · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Fancher exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ILLIllinois
MSUMichigan State
vs
Offense
90.8
#14 of 138
QB
Quarterback
68.2
#109 of 138
75.4
#70 of 138
RB
Running backs
72.8
#99 of 138
75.8
#31 of 138
WR
Receivers
71.7
#65 of 138
73.7
#44 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.8
#59 of 138
69.2
#60 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.5
#49 of 138
Defense
72.8
#74 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.3
#80 of 138
76.7
#48 of 138
LB
Linebackers
80.2
#19 of 138
73.0
#57 of 138
DB
Secondary
66.7
#129 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Illinois
opponent
Michigan State
Hhome-2.9
NEBNebraska#12-18.0Hhome
Aaway-3.2
UCLAUCLA#24-10.7Aaway
Hhome-10.9
OREOregon#8-18.4Hhome
Aaway-6.8
NUNorthwestern#16-8.9Hhome