AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#35Away
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
33p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
ILL 68%32% MSU
Spread
ILL -6.8
Total
59
Moneyline
ILL-212MSU+212
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ILL advantageevenMSU advantage →
ILL throw
ILL +26
ILL run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
ILL +7
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
ILL +12
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
MSU +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · ILL
MLB · MSU
68.9
86.7
MSU +18
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Charles Brantley
X · ILL
CB1 · MSU
68.9
85.6
MSU +17
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
James Kreutz
RB · MSU
MLB · ILL
83.7
63.3
MSU +20
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · ILL
EDGE · MSU
61.6
68.5
MSU +7
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Caleb Gash
TE · ILL
FS · MSU
72.7
48.6
ILL +24
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · MSU
EDGE · ILL
42.1
78.8
ILL +37

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Illinois
opponent
Michigan State
home+2.9
Nebraska#41
-6.5home
away+2.5
UCLA#53
-6.8away
home-18.6
Oregon#2
-27.9home
away-3.2
Northwestern#37
-7.5home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +6.895% interval: -30.7 to 17.180% interval: -24.2 to 10.6-24+11ILL wins 68%MSU wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ILL 32–25 MSUMSU 21–56 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 25–53 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 28–49 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 32–46 ILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 35–42 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 39–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 42–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 46–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 49–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 18–53 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 21–49 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 25–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 28–42 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 32–39 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 35–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 39–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 42–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 46–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 14–49 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 18–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 21–42 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 25–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 28–35 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 32–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 35–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 39–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 42–21 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 11–46 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 14–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 18–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 21–35 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 25–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMSU 28–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 32–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 35–21 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 39–18 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 7–42 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 11–39 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 14–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 18–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 21–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 25–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 28–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 32–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 35–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 4–39 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 7–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 11–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 14–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 18–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 21–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 25–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 28–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 32–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 0–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 4–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 7–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 11–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 14–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 18–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 21–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 25–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 28–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalILL +35ILL +21ILL +7MSU +7MSU +21margin →